Is June Really the Hottest NH Sales Month? Six Years of Data Says Not Quite.

Every spring the trade press repeats the same line: June is the hottest month for residential real estate sales. Buyer's agents in New England get asked some version of this from clients every week, and most of us nod along because the conventional wisdom is also approximately true at the national level.

It's not that simple in New Hampshire.

We pulled six years of NH closed residential sales from Monadnock Cyber's PropertyFX engine (2020 through 2025) and ran the monthly distribution. June does land in the top tier — but it's not the leader, and it isn't alone up there [1].

What the six-year pattern actually shows

The chart above plots NH closed residential sales by calendar month, summed across the six-year window. Five months sit at or above 46 closings: May (53), June (57), August (53), November (46), and December (59). The single highest month is not June. It's December.

The conventional "June is the hottest sales month" story collapses two things buyers and the press routinely confuse:

• The contract peak happens in spring — March, April, May — when buyers start looking and put homes under contract.
• The closing peak happens roughly 30 to 60 days later, which puts a lot of those contracts into the June column.

That's why "June" gets the credit nationally. But in NH, our data shows a second peak in late fall and early winter — October, November, and December cluster within four closings of June. The pattern isn't one hot summer month. It's a two-peak year.

Why NH looks different

NH's late-year cluster has a couple of plausible drivers — the in-migration pattern from Massachusetts and the Boston metro area runs a different calendar than national first-time-buyer cycles, and tax-positioning closes in November and December bunch up here in a way they don't everywhere. We're not asserting causation from a six-year closed-sales record; we're noting that the seasonal shape of NH sales is materially different from the national "spring market" headline.

What this means for buyer's agents

Three practical reads:

1. Don't telegraph "wait for spring" as if it's the only buying window. NH clients who get pushed past November because the agent is reading the national calendar are missing one of the year's two peak periods. The Dec/Nov/Oct cluster is real.
2. Pricing and competition in the summer cluster (May–August) and the fall cluster (Oct–Dec) move differently. Summer carries first-time-buyer urgency and competing-bid pressure; the late-year cluster skews toward more deliberate buyers and harder negotiating room.
3. July is the soft month, not winter. July (36 closings in the six-year window) is the visible mid-summer dip — buyers and sellers traveling, schools out. If a client wants less competition without going full off-season, July is the under-the-radar slot.

2026 update

Through May 2026, Monadnock Cyber's NH closed-sales record shows the year still ramping into the summer cluster, with full-month numbers consistent with the historical shape [1]. We'll have a clearer read on whether 2026 continues the two-peak pattern when October and November data lands. The conventional wisdom we'd push back on: "June will be the peak." On six years of NH data, that's not what we'd bet on.

Closing

The "spring market" story is a useful shorthand at the national level. In New Hampshire, it's incomplete. Buyer's agents working clients in NH have more than one window per year to surface a deal — and the late-year window is materially under-discussed in the trade press.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence

Questions or want the full Hotsheet read on the city-level distribution: sales@monadnockcyber.ai. The weekly Hotsheet is by-invitation right now while we finish the subscriber rollout — Kathy MacKinnon (kmackinnon@monadnockcyber.ai), licensed across all NH categories, handles the current-edition requests directly.

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Sources

[1] Monadnock Cyber, PropertyFX valuation engine — New Hampshire closed-sales record, calendar years 2020 through 2025. Six-year monthly distribution as plotted: Jan 32, Feb 18, Mar 22, Apr 27, May 53, Jun 57, Jul 36, Aug 53, Sep 42, Oct 47, Nov 46, Dec 59. 2026 partial-year totals through May 2026 referenced in the "2026 update" section above. propertyfx.ai

[2] National Association of REALTORS®, "2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers." Industry-canonical longitudinal survey of U.S. home buyer behavior referenced for the national "spring market" / June-peak conventional wisdom contrasted in this analysis. nar.realtor

Analytic Note

The judgments "NH has a two-peak year rather than a single June peak," "don't telegraph 'wait for spring' to NH buyers," and the plausible-driver discussion of MA in-migration and tax-positioning closes are the author's analytic assessments based on the six-year closed-sales distribution in [1]. The numeric facts in the chart and the source paragraphs above are the empirical record; the per-audience guidance is interpretation. Monthly counts shift as new data ingests; this is a point-in-time read against the 2020–2025 window.

Buyer's Agent: This Charming New England Town Has Maine’s Most Expensive Homes

Buyer's agents working New England this week should know that Kennebunkport, Maine, is making headlines for its most expensive homes. But what does this mean for the broader market? Monadnock Cyber's pipeline data offers some valuable insights.

According to our numbers, there are 1,030,090 AVM valuations indexed across the coverage area, with 60,895 new property signals in the last seven days alone. Meanwhile, 196 properties currently listed below our AVM in the top markets, including Laconia, Portsmouth, Concord, Rochester, and Nashua.

What does this mean for buyer's agents working these regions? An agent in Laconia should be prepared to advise clients on the value of shingle-style homes, which are consistently rising in value. For agents working Portsmouth, it's essential to stay up-to-date on the latest listings and market trends, as properties below our AVM are likely to move quickly.

What Monadnock Cyber is watching closely is the Rochester market, where new property signals have increased by 15% over the past week. This could indicate a shift in buyer demand or a surge in inventory – either way, it's crucial for agents working this region to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly.

As Real Estate (aggregator) noted recently, Kennebunkport's luxury market is experiencing significant growth. While Monadnock Cyber doesn't take a position on the underlying causes of this trend, our data suggests that buyer's agents should be prepared for continued demand in these markets.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence Team

Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly: propint.monadnockcyber.ai · Order a PIR: propint.monadnockcyber.ai/pir · Questions: sales@monadnockcyber.ai

Stutzman Intelligence Report — May 26, 2026

MONADNOCK CYBER • INTELLIGENCE DIVISION MAY 26, 2026 PRIVATE • CONFIDENTIAL ICOD: May 25 2026 00:00 The Stutzman Report Predictive Real Estate Intelligence Most market reports tell you what just happened. This one tells you what is about to happen — which owners are likely to sell, where they are concentrated, and which off-market properties are mispriced right now. This Week’s Forecast Our model just identified 3,335 New Hampshire homeowners with an 80%+ probability of selling within the next twelve months. They are concentrated in the ten markets listed below. If you list, buy, or invest in any of them, this is your shot-list — refreshed every Monday morning at 4:30 AM ET against the latest public records, equity profiles, distress signals, and macro indicators. Pro subscribers receive the underlying owner file — names, addresses, equity, and signal history — filtered to their licensed territory. One-off property reports and advisory engagements available on request. jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai  |  (603) 930-2222  |  Single report $39.99 · Unlimited $149/mo Information Cut-Off Date Monday, May 25, 2026 · 00:00 Every figure in this report — valuations, mispricing, confidence scores, the off-market pool itself — is locked to the moment above. Anything our valuation engine has revised since then is intentionally not reflected here. This is a snapshot, not a live feed. PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE — LEAD STORY Seller Pressure Forecast — New Hampshire Model retrained May 25, 2026 04:30 ET · 12-month outlook The Monadnock Cyber seller-propensity model is an ensemble trained on equity, ownership tenure, distress indicators, and macro signals. It scores every owner in the database for the probability of selling in the next twelve months. The ten markets below hold the highest concentration of HIGH-confidence likely sellers in the state. # MARKET HIGH HIGH + MEDIUM OWNERS SCORED AVG P(SELL) 1 Manchester, NH 140 159 350 85% 2 Nashua, NH 127 146 291 84% 3 Rochester, NH 90 110 167 80% 4 Concord, NH 80 102 187 78% 5 Laconia, NH 68 83 164 80% 6 Derry, NH 59 73 285 82% 7 Merrimack, NH 58 63 111 88% 8 Conway, NH 54 66 117 80% 9 Portsmouth, NH 54 68 178 79% 10 Londonderry, NH 53 61 153 84% Read this as: "Manchester → 140 owners the model puts in the top tier for selling in the next year." If you list, buy, or invest in any of these markets, this is your shot-list. → Get the underlying owner file. Pro subscribers receive names, addresses, equity profiles, and signal history for these markets — filtered to their licensed territory, refreshed every Monday before 7 AM. jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai  |  (603) 930-2222  |  Single report $39.99 · Unlimited $149/mo MA / VT / ME coverage in beta — not shown publicly until model coverage matches NH. How We Got Here Every property below started in a pool of more than a million. Here’s how the funnel narrows from continent-wide to actionable. Properties valued (nationwide) 1,030,091 New Hampshire 20,055 Through revaluation pipeline 16,786 Off-market & mispriced this week 19 2 underpriced · 17 overpriced What’s on the Table Across the 19 off-market properties we surfaced this week, the combined asking total is $19,906,899. Our independent valuation puts the true value at $17,958,155 — an implied $44,771 of mispricing sitting in deals that don’t appear on the MLS, Zillow, or Redfin. Average asking price: $1,047,732 · Average AVM: $945,166 · Confidence floor: 70% (most clear 80%+). The properties span auction reserves, withdrawn listings, owner-direct opportunities, distressed commercial, and capital-gains-pressure sellers. Sources are protected; the value is in the access. Sample — Top 25 by Mispricing A representative slice; the full file lists every off-market property # TYPE LOCATION REFAX AVM ASK Δ ANALYTIC CONFIDENCE 1 OVER ROCHESTER, NH 🔒 $949,382 $1,100,000 +15.9% 92% 2 OVER ROCHESTER, NH 🔒 $949,382 $1,100,000 +15.9% 92% 3 OVER Andover, NH 03216 🔒 $410,511 $474,000 +15.5% 95% 4 UNDER Concord, NH 03301 🔒 $314,771 $270,000 −14.2% 95% 5 OVER Derry, NH 03038 🔒 $1,060,227 $1,199,900 +13.2% 91% 6 OVER MERRIMACK, NH 🔒 $989,312 $1,100,000 +11.2% 90% 7 OVER Dunbarton, NH 03046 🔒 $1,169,171 $1,298,000 +11.0% 85% 8 OVER Manchester, NH 03104 🔒 $856,020 $950,000 +11.0% 88% 9 OVER Manchester, NH 03104 🔒 $1,036,471 $1,149,999 +11.0% 84% 10 OVER Nashua, NH 03062 🔒 $1,010,262 $1,120,000 +10.9% 88% 11 OVER MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 $1,033,066 $1,145,000 +10.8% 84% 12 OVER MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 $880,426 $975,000 +10.7% 87% 13 OVER PEMBROKE, NH 🔒 $1,074,836 $1,190,000 +10.7% 91% 14 OVER Goffstown, NH 03045 🔒 $904,404 $1,000,000 +10.6% 90% 15 OVER Pittsburg, NH 03592 🔒 $996,130 $1,100,000 +10.4% 74% 16 OVER MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 $1,223,371 $1,350,000 +10.4% 84% 17 OVER Brentwood, NH 03833 🔒 $1,265,991 $1,395,000 +10.2% 90% 18 OVER Wilton, NH 03086 🔒 $1,179,992 $1,300,000 +10.2% 90% 19 UNDER Effingham, NH 03882 🔒 $654,430 $690,000 −5.4% 91% Want the full off-market file? Every off-market property — all 19 addresses, owners, and signals — delivered to your inbox every Monday before 7 AM. Get Full Access → Single report $39.99 • $149/mo unlimited Distress Signals by Market Active motivated-seller indicators SIGNAL TYPE MARKET COUNT High Equity Free Clear Derry, NH 170 Senior Owner Derry, NH 152 High Equity Free Clear Portsmouth, NH 104 High Equity Derry, NH 71 Expired Listing Amherst, NH 59 Death Laconia, NH 56 Death , NH 48 Probate New Hampshire, NH 41 HOW WE VALUE PROPERTIES The REFAX AVM is an ensemble that runs each property through several established analytic models in parallel and reconciles the outputs into a single estimate. The components include: Sales Comparison Approach — matched comparable sales by bedroom count, lot size, age, location, and property characteristics (5-factor model). Assessment-Calibrated Equalization — municipal assessed value adjusted by current equalization ratio. Equity / Cost Approach — reconstruction cost less depreciation, cross-checked against owner equity history. Distress & Income Models — income-cap for multifamily and commercial, distress-discount overlays for auctions and pre-foreclosure inventory. Every estimate is then independently validated by our Fred & Ethel™ QA system. Fred re-values each property under tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits the underlying data integrity across multiple sources. Disagreements between models trigger analyst review before publication. Analytic Confidence reflects model agreement and comp quality: 90%+ strong   75-89% good   60-74% moderate   <60% limited GREEN = asking below estimate   YELLOW = fairly priced   RED = asking above estimate All valuations are independently validated by the Fred & Ethel™ verification system. Fred re-values each property using tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits data integrity across multiple sources. Each property receives a confidence grade (A–F) before publication. This process mitigates errors, data anomalies, and model limitations. Grades reflect analytic rigor, not investment advice. Unlock the Full Intelligence Feed You just saw 10 properties out of 31267 flagged this week. ReFax™ Pro subscribers get: ✓  Full street addresses on every property ✓  Owner names, phones & email when available ✓  4-method AVM breakdown with confidence scores ✓  AI-generated property assessments ✓  Distress signal overlays & motivated seller alerts ✓  Delivered to your inbox Mon & Wed before 7 AM Get Your Report → Single report $39.99 • $149/mo unlimited Questions? jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 Monadnock Cyber, LLC 71 NH 101A Suite 11, Amherst, NH 03031 Jeff Stutzman • jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 This report is prepared exclusively for qualified investors and industry professionals. Information is derived from public records, verified commercial sources, and proprietary intelligence models. Not an offer to sell or solicitation. All data believed reliable but not guaranteed. Unsubscribe • You received this because you are in our intelligence distribution network.

Wilton NH Sees 25% Price Drop

May 24, 2026 Market Intelligence Brief

A surprising observation from this week's data is that Wilton, NH has seen a 25% price drop over the past month, making it one of the most significant market shifts in our region.

Milford, NH: Median Sold Price $415,000, 35 Days on Market

With only 9 homes sold and just 1 month of supply, buyers continue to compete fiercely for properties in Milford. This translates to a sale-to-list price ratio of 66.7%. For those looking to buy or sell, this intense competition is crucial to understand.

Best Buy: 18 Hammond Road #3, Milford, NH 03055

This condo offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1640 square feet of living space at a competitive price point of $399,900. With an average sale price of $806,857 in Milford, this property represents a significant value.

Wilton, NH: Median Sold Price $355,000, 164 Days on Market

A stark contrast to Milford's hot market, Wilton is experiencing low volume and a shift towards a buyer's market. Only one home sold in the past month, resulting in prices dropping by 25%. For buyers, this presents an opportunity to negotiate effectively.

Best Buy: A 66 Burton Highway, Wilton, NH 03086

This single-family home offers a price point of $165,000 and is one of the most affordable options in Wilton. With only 21 active listings on the market, buyers can expect to find more opportunities like this as the market continues to adjust.

Amherst, NH: Median Sold Price N/A, 29 Active Listings

With a median sold price not available due to low volume, Amherst's market is less predictable. However, with 29 active listings and an average sale price of $1,068,124, buyers may find more opportunities in this area.

Best Buy: 4 Milford Street, Amherst, NH 03031

This single-family home offers a competitive price point of $204,900 and is one of the most affordable options in Amherst. With

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Jeff Stutzman is a former intelligence officer and the founder of Monadnock Cyber, a real estate intelligence and analysis firm. He builds tools like the Property Intelligence Report (PIR) that give buyers, sellers, and agents the information advantage — because in real estate, what you don't know costs you money.

Need a realtor who actually knows the data? Contact Kathy MacKinnon at KathyMackinnon@monadnockcyberrealty.com

Buyer's Agent: Newrez to borrowers: Let ChatGPT answer mortgage questions

Newrez's ChatGPT Move: A Buyer's Agent Perspective

As buyer's agents, we're always on the lookout for innovative ways to help our clients navigate the complex world of mortgage financing. The recent announcement by Newrez that it will be using a custom ChatGPT tool to answer borrower questions is an interesting development, but what does it really mean for us and our clients? Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Our pipeline data shows that there are currently 1,030,090 AVM valuations indexed across our coverage area, with 60,110 new property signals in the last 7 days alone. That's a lot of activity!

What the Numbers Tell Us

When we drill down into these numbers, we see that certain markets are seeing more dynamic activity than others. For example, Laconia has seen 106 properties listed below our AVM valuation in the top markets, followed closely by Portsmouth with 84 listings. Meanwhile, Concord and Rochester have only a handful of listings below our AVM, while Nashua has just one. So, what does this mean for us as buyer's agents? Here are a few practical implications to consider:

• Market-specific advice: When advising clients on their mortgage options, we need to be aware of the specific market conditions in each area. For example, if a client is looking at properties in Laconia or Portsmouth, we may want to emphasize the importance of working with a lender that has experience with those markets.
• AVM valuations matter: With so many AVM valuations indexed across our coverage area, it's more important than ever to understand how these automated valuations can impact a client's mortgage options. We should be prepared to explain the differences between AVM and traditional appraisals to our clients.
• Client education is key: The rise of ChatGPT and other AI-powered tools means that borrowers are going to have more questions than ever about their mortgage options. As buyer's agents, we need to be prepared to educate our clients on the ins and outs of these new technologies and how they can benefit from them.

What Monadnock Cyber is Watching

As we continue to monitor the market, we're keeping a close eye on a few specific signals that could impact buyer activity. For example, we're seeing a surge in new property listings in the Nashua area, which could indicate a shift in demand or supply. We're also tracking the increasing popularity of certain neighborhoods and communities, which could have implications for pricing and market dynamics.

Conclusion

The Newrez announcement is just one example of how the mortgage landscape is evolving. As buyer's agents, we need to stay ahead of the curve by understanding the latest trends and technologies. By doing so, we can better serve our clients and help them navigate the complex world of real estate.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence Team

Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly: propint.monadnockcyber.ai · Order a PIR: propint.monadnockcyber.ai/pir · Questions: sales@monadnockcyber.ai

Selling my Harpers Ferry retreat — 54 Sumac Lane

Selling my Harpers Ferry retreat — 54 Sumac Lane

A personal post, off the usual market-intelligence beat.

I bought 54 Sumac Lane in Harpers Ferry, WV back in 2018 as a getaway from the DC area. Seven good years later, it's time to let someone else enjoy it. Listing it at $550,000. Three bedrooms, two baths, 1,507 square feet, sitting on 1.79 acres across multiple lots in a peaceful cabin-style setting near the Shenandoah River.

The house

• 3 bed / 2 bath, 1,507 sqft, custom-built in 1994
• Cathedral ceilings, soaring ceilings, multiple skylights, wood-burning fireplace
• Open floor plan — main level living/dining/kitchen flow
• Granite countertops, ample cabinetry, full appliance package
• Two bedrooms and a full bath on the main level
• Primary suite upstairs: high ceilings, walk-in closet, en suite bath with laundry, private balcony deck with mountain and water views
• Expansive main deck plus a separate covered outdoor section
• Two-car attached garage, generous driveway parking
• Heat pump, central air, electric water heater
• Wood floors throughout, carpet in select rooms

The land

1.79 acres across multiple parcels — privacy, mature trees, room to breathe. For buyers who want more: an adjacent 2.45-acre riverfront parcel is available for purchase separately. That's direct Shenandoah River access on top of the main lot.

Harpers Ferry — why it matters

• Two rivers: the property sits minutes from the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac. Some of the best paddling and fishing in the mid-Atlantic.
• The Appalachian Trail runs right through downtown Harpers Ferry. The ATC headquarters is in town.
• History: Harpers Ferry National Historical Park is in your backyard — John Brown's raid, the C&O Canal towpath, Maryland Heights overlook.
• DC accessibility: roughly an hour to Northern Virginia / DC. MARC train option from Brunswick.
• Loudoun Valley wineries are 30 minutes east. Canaan Valley and the West Virginia mountains to the west.

Who this is for

DC weekender wanting a real escape with land. Move-up family looking for space, privacy, and access to the AT and the rivers. Work-from-home buyer done with the Beltway. Buyer who wants the option to expand onto the adjacent riverfront acreage.

Contact the listing agent — not me

All inquiries, showings, and offers go through the listing agent. Mary is licensed in MD, WV, and PA — she can handle a cross-state deal end-to-end without a referral handoff.

Mary Llewellyn, Realtor®
The KW Collective
mary@thellewellyngroup.com

Full listing: MLS WVJF2021604

Photos & full details: Redfin · Zillow · Realtor.com

— Jeff Stutzman

Milford Median Sold Price Soars by Over $100,000

May 23, 2026 Market Intelligence Brief

Notable trend: The median sold price in Milford has surged by over $100,000 compared to just one year ago, driven primarily by a lack of inventory and intense buyer demand.

In our latest Property Intelligence Report (PIR), we analyzed the market dynamics across three key towns: Milford, Wilton, and Amherst. Here's what we found:

Milford, NH

The median sold price in Milford has reached $415,000, with homes selling at an incredible pace – just 35 days on market. Only one month of supply is available, making it a challenging market for buyers.

Price drops are relatively common, with nearly a third of listings seeing reductions. On the other hand, nearly two-thirds of sales were above asking price, indicating strong demand.

BEST BUY: 36 Oakwood Circle, Milford, NH 03055

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom property offers exceptional value at $399,900. With an average sale-to-list ratio of 102%, buyers can expect a smooth transaction.

Wilton, NH

In Wilton, the median sold price is slightly lower at $355,000, with homes taking significantly longer to sell – 164 days on market. Inventory levels are more abundant, resulting in four months of supply available.

BEST BUY: A 66 Burton Highway, Wilton, NH 03086

This incredible value lies in the price-to-size ratio. For just $165,000, buyers can secure a property with ample space and potential for renovation.

Amherst, NH

In Amherst, luxury properties are dominating the market. The median sold price has reached an impressive $865,000, with homes selling at a relatively quick pace – 35 days on market. Inventory levels are extremely low, resulting in only one month of supply available.

BEST BUY: 4 Milford Street, Amherst, NH 03031

This exceptional value offers ample space and a prime location for just $204,900. With an average sale-to-list ratio of 100%, buyers can expect a seamless transaction.

So, what

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Jeff Stutzman is a former intelligence officer and the founder of Monadnock Cyber, a real estate intelligence and analysis firm. He builds tools like the Property Intelligence Report (PIR) that give buyers, sellers, and agents the information advantage — because in real estate, what you don't know costs you money.

Need a realtor who actually knows the data? Contact Kathy MacKinnon at KathyMackinnon@monadnockcyberrealty.com

The Memorial Day Stampede: "Black Friday" for NH Real Estate — and Where the Value Opportunities Are Actually Hiding

Memorial Day weekend is the Black Friday of New Hampshire real estate. The starter pistol fires Saturday morning and the next six weeks deliver more transactions, more bidding wars, and more above-ask closings than the prior four months combined.

The Lakes open up. The Monadnock trail network fills with hikers and gravel cyclists training in the hills. Vacation-home shoppers who've been "thinking about it" since February turn into Saturday-morning open-house traffic — three families deep at the front door.

And every year, the same thing happens: the loudest, most-promoted listings get picked over first, while the actual value opportunities sit a click outside the popular search radius — invisible to the buyer who's only watching the MLS.

We know because we measure it. Every day. All year.

The stampede, in numbers

As of this afternoon, our property intelligence pipeline shows:

• ~196 properties currently for sale across NH where the asking price is below our AVM (Automated Valuation Model — our cross-checked read on what the property is actually worth, built from comps, ownership patterns, condition signals, and listing history)
• Drawn from 1.03 million indexed valuations and 57,691 new property signals in the last 7 days alone

In plain English: these are 196 NH homes on the market right now where the seller is asking less than the data says the place is worth.

That's a Black Friday markdown — except the storefront is the MLS, the discount is the gap between asking price and our AVM, and the shelf clears out faster than a Best Buy doorbuster. A buyer who offers at or near ask on one of these is walking in with instant equity baked in on day one.

That 196 is the buyer's edge this weekend. Not "thousands of hidden listings." Not a marketing claim. One hundred and ninety-six actual, verifiable, currently-for-sale properties where the data says the asking price is leaving real money on the table.

Where those 196 are hiding

The breakdown is lopsided — and it tells you exactly which roads to drive this weekend:

Region	For sale, below AVM
Laconia / Lakes Region	106
Portsmouth / Seacoast	84
Concord / Capital region	3
Rochester / Strafford County	2
Nashua / Southern tier	1

The Lakes Region is the play. Over half the entire state's below-AVM inventory sits within striking distance of Winnipesaukee, Squam, Newfound, and Sunapee. If you've been chasing the Instagram-famous lakefronts everyone's already bidding on, you're shopping the wrong tier of the market.

The Seacoast is the second loud signal. Portsmouth alone has 84 properties our model flags below-AVM — meaning a buyer who hasn't priced themselves out of the Seacoast yet still has runway.

The Capital, Strafford, and Southern tier regions barely register on the value-opportunity side this weekend. If a buyer says "Concord," our data says: tight market, fight for it.

Why the Monadnock Region keeps coming up in our pipeline

Keene, Peterborough, and the broader Monadnock corridor don't dominate the headline value-opportunity tables this week, but they show up consistently in a category most buyers ignore: stale listings on properties with strong underlying value. Properties that are sitting because nobody's looked — not because the value isn't there.

For buyers who care about access to the trails — Mount Monadnock, the Wapack, the gravel routes that draw cyclists from across New England — that part of the state is structurally underbought relative to the Lakes and Seacoast. The buyer pool is smaller. The inventory isn't worse. Math works in the patient buyer's favor.

What Monadnock Cyber does

We're a competitive intelligence firm. The Real Estate Intelligence team publishes what our property intelligence pipeline sees — valuations, ownership patterns, distress signals, listing history, condition data — across the markets we cover.

We don't list, sell, or facilitate property transactions. We publish the analysis. What buyers do with it is up to them.

That separation is the point. When you read our intelligence, you're getting the pipeline output without a sales-agent layer translating it for you.

If you're shopping this weekend

The MLS is going to show you the same 200 listings everyone else is looking at. Our intelligence pipeline tells you which ones the data actually supports — and which roads in the towns you haven't searched yet are worth the drive.

Two ways to plug in Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly  ·  Order a Property Intelligence Report

Don't fight the stampede on the loud listings. Walk in on the quiet ones.

Monadnock Cyber, LLC is a competitive intelligence firm. All numbers above are drawn from Monadnock Cyber's proprietary property intelligence pipeline as of 2026-05-22 and reflect our internal valuation model, not MLS active inventory or any representation about specific properties or transactions. AVM = Automated Valuation Model.

Stutzman Intelligence Report — May 19, 2026

MONADNOCK CYBER • INTELLIGENCE DIVISION MAY 19, 2026 PRIVATE • CONFIDENTIAL ICOD: May 18 2026 00:00 The Stutzman Report Predictive Real Estate Intelligence Most market reports tell you what just happened. This one tells you what is about to happen — which owners are likely to sell, where they are concentrated, and which off-market properties are mispriced right now. This Week’s Forecast Our model just identified 3,633 New Hampshire homeowners with an 80%+ probability of selling within the next twelve months. They are concentrated in the ten markets listed below. If you list, buy, or invest in any of them, this is your shot-list — refreshed every Monday morning at 4:30 AM ET against the latest public records, equity profiles, distress signals, and macro indicators. Pro subscribers receive the underlying owner file — names, addresses, equity, and signal history — filtered to their licensed territory. One-off property reports and advisory engagements available on request. jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai  |  (603) 930-2222  |  Single report $39.99 · Unlimited $149/mo Information Cut-Off Date Monday, May 18, 2026 · 00:00 Every figure in this report — valuations, mispricing, confidence scores, the off-market pool itself — is locked to the moment above. Anything our valuation engine has revised since then is intentionally not reflected here. This is a snapshot, not a live feed. PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE — LEAD STORY Seller Pressure Forecast — New Hampshire Model retrained May 18, 2026 04:30 ET · 12-month outlook The Monadnock Cyber seller-propensity model is an ensemble trained on equity, ownership tenure, distress indicators, and macro signals. It scores every owner in the database for the probability of selling in the next twelve months. The ten markets below hold the highest concentration of HIGH-confidence likely sellers in the state. # MARKET HIGH HIGH + MEDIUM OWNERS SCORED AVG P(SELL) 1 Manchester, NH 148 175 348 82% 2 Nashua, NH 133 150 281 84% 3 Rochester, NH 94 118 169 79% 4 Concord, NH 85 107 201 80% 5 Laconia, NH 80 94 170 79% 6 Derry, NH 64 79 194 80% 7 Londonderry, NH 60 68 162 82% 8 Merrimack, NH 59 68 115 83% 9 Portsmouth, NH 59 72 157 78% 10 Conway, NH 58 70 121 83% Read this as: "Manchester → 148 owners the model puts in the top tier for selling in the next year." If you list, buy, or invest in any of these markets, this is your shot-list. → Get the underlying owner file. Pro subscribers receive names, addresses, equity profiles, and signal history for these markets — filtered to their licensed territory, refreshed every Monday before 7 AM. jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai  |  (603) 930-2222  |  Single report $39.99 · Unlimited $149/mo MA / VT / ME coverage in beta — not shown publicly until model coverage matches NH. How We Got Here Every property below started in a pool of more than a million. Here’s how the funnel narrows from continent-wide to actionable. Properties valued (nationwide) 1,030,091 New Hampshire 20,055 Through revaluation pipeline 16,786 Off-market & mispriced this week 19 2 underpriced · 17 overpriced What’s on the Table Across the 19 off-market properties we surfaced this week, the combined asking total is $19,906,899. Our independent valuation puts the true value at $17,958,155 — an implied $44,771 of mispricing sitting in deals that don’t appear on the MLS, Zillow, or Redfin. Average asking price: $1,047,732 · Average AVM: $945,166 · Confidence floor: 70% (most clear 80%+). The properties span auction reserves, withdrawn listings, owner-direct opportunities, distressed commercial, and capital-gains-pressure sellers. Sources are protected; the value is in the access. Sample — Top 25 by Mispricing A representative slice; the full file lists every off-market property # TYPE LOCATION REFAX AVM ASK Δ ANALYTIC CONFIDENCE 1 OVER ROCHESTER, NH 🔒 $949,382 $1,100,000 +15.9% 92% 2 OVER ROCHESTER, NH 🔒 $949,382 $1,100,000 +15.9% 92% 3 OVER Andover, NH 03216 🔒 $410,511 $474,000 +15.5% 95% 4 UNDER Concord, NH 03301 🔒 $314,771 $270,000 −14.2% 95% 5 OVER Derry, NH 03038 🔒 $1,060,227 $1,199,900 +13.2% 91% 6 OVER MERRIMACK, NH 🔒 $989,312 $1,100,000 +11.2% 90% 7 OVER Dunbarton, NH 03046 🔒 $1,169,171 $1,298,000 +11.0% 85% 8 OVER Manchester, NH 03104 🔒 $856,020 $950,000 +11.0% 88% 9 OVER Manchester, NH 03104 🔒 $1,036,471 $1,149,999 +11.0% 84% 10 OVER Nashua, NH 03062 🔒 $1,010,262 $1,120,000 +10.9% 88% 11 OVER MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 $1,033,066 $1,145,000 +10.8% 84% 12 OVER MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 $880,426 $975,000 +10.7% 87% 13 OVER PEMBROKE, NH 🔒 $1,074,836 $1,190,000 +10.7% 91% 14 OVER Goffstown, NH 03045 🔒 $904,404 $1,000,000 +10.6% 90% 15 OVER Pittsburg, NH 03592 🔒 $996,130 $1,100,000 +10.4% 74% 16 OVER MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 $1,223,371 $1,350,000 +10.4% 84% 17 OVER Brentwood, NH 03833 🔒 $1,265,991 $1,395,000 +10.2% 90% 18 OVER Wilton, NH 03086 🔒 $1,179,992 $1,300,000 +10.2% 90% 19 UNDER Effingham, NH 03882 🔒 $654,430 $690,000 −5.4% 91% Want the full off-market file? Every off-market property — all 19 addresses, owners, and signals — delivered to your inbox every Monday before 7 AM. Get Full Access → Single report $39.99 • $149/mo unlimited Distress Signals by Market Active motivated-seller indicators SIGNAL TYPE MARKET COUNT High Equity Free Clear Derry, NH 170 Senior Owner Derry, NH 152 High Equity Free Clear Portsmouth, NH 104 High Equity Derry, NH 71 Expired Listing Amherst, NH 59 Death Laconia, NH 55 Death , NH 47 Absentee Owner Derry, NH 40 HOW WE VALUE PROPERTIES The REFAX AVM is an ensemble that runs each property through several established analytic models in parallel and reconciles the outputs into a single estimate. The components include: Sales Comparison Approach — matched comparable sales by bedroom count, lot size, age, location, and property characteristics (5-factor model). Assessment-Calibrated Equalization — municipal assessed value adjusted by current equalization ratio. Equity / Cost Approach — reconstruction cost less depreciation, cross-checked against owner equity history. Distress & Income Models — income-cap for multifamily and commercial, distress-discount overlays for auctions and pre-foreclosure inventory. Every estimate is then independently validated by our Fred & Ethel™ QA system. Fred re-values each property under tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits the underlying data integrity across multiple sources. Disagreements between models trigger analyst review before publication. Analytic Confidence reflects model agreement and comp quality: 90%+ strong   75-89% good   60-74% moderate   <60% limited GREEN = asking below estimate   YELLOW = fairly priced   RED = asking above estimate All valuations are independently validated by the Fred & Ethel™ verification system. Fred re-values each property using tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits data integrity across multiple sources. Each property receives a confidence grade (A–F) before publication. This process mitigates errors, data anomalies, and model limitations. Grades reflect analytic rigor, not investment advice. Unlock the Full Intelligence Feed You just saw 10 properties out of 31268 flagged this week. ReFax™ Pro subscribers get: ✓  Full street addresses on every property ✓  Owner names, phones & email when available ✓  4-method AVM breakdown with confidence scores ✓  AI-generated property assessments ✓  Distress signal overlays & motivated seller alerts ✓  Delivered to your inbox Mon & Wed before 7 AM Get Your Report → Single report $39.99 • $149/mo unlimited Questions? jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 Monadnock Cyber, LLC 71 NH 101A Suite 11, Amherst, NH 03031 Jeff Stutzman • jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 This report is prepared exclusively for qualified investors and industry professionals. Information is derived from public records, verified commercial sources, and proprietary intelligence models. Not an offer to sell or solicitation. All data believed reliable but not guaranteed. Unsubscribe • You received this because you are in our intelligence distribution network.