| MONADNOCK CYBER • INTELLIGENCE DIVISION |
MAY 19, 2026
PRIVATE • CONFIDENTIAL
ICOD: May 18 2026 00:00 |
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The Stutzman Report
Predictive Real Estate Intelligence
Most market reports tell you what just happened. This one tells you what is about to happen — which owners are likely to sell, where they are concentrated, and which off-market properties are mispriced right now.
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This Week’s Forecast
Our model just identified 3,633 New Hampshire homeowners with an 80%+ probability of selling within the next twelve months.
They are concentrated in the ten markets listed below. If you list, buy, or invest in any of them, this is your shot-list — refreshed every Monday morning at 4:30 AM ET against the latest public records, equity profiles, distress signals, and macro indicators.
Pro subscribers receive the underlying owner file — names, addresses, equity, and signal history — filtered to their licensed territory. One-off property reports and advisory engagements available on request.
jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai | (603) 930-2222 | Single report $39.99 · Unlimited $149/mo
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| Information Cut-Off Date |
Monday, May 18, 2026 · 00:00 |
| Every figure in this report — valuations, mispricing, confidence scores, the off-market pool itself — is locked to the moment above. Anything our valuation engine has revised since then is intentionally not reflected here. This is a snapshot, not a live feed. |
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| PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE — LEAD STORY |
| Seller Pressure Forecast — New Hampshire |
| Model retrained May 18, 2026 04:30 ET · 12-month outlook |
| The Monadnock Cyber seller-propensity model is an ensemble trained on equity, ownership tenure, distress indicators, and macro signals. It scores every owner in the database for the probability of selling in the next twelve months. The ten markets below hold the highest concentration of HIGH-confidence likely sellers in the state. |
| # |
MARKET |
HIGH |
HIGH +
MEDIUM |
OWNERS
SCORED |
AVG
P(SELL) |
| 1 |
Manchester, NH |
148 |
175 |
348 |
82% |
| 2 |
Nashua, NH |
133 |
150 |
281 |
84% |
| 3 |
Rochester, NH |
94 |
118 |
169 |
79% |
| 4 |
Concord, NH |
85 |
107 |
201 |
80% |
| 5 |
Laconia, NH |
80 |
94 |
170 |
79% |
| 6 |
Derry, NH |
64 |
79 |
194 |
80% |
| 7 |
Londonderry, NH |
60 |
68 |
162 |
82% |
| 8 |
Merrimack, NH |
59 |
68 |
115 |
83% |
| 9 |
Portsmouth, NH |
59 |
72 |
157 |
78% |
| 10 |
Conway, NH |
58 |
70 |
121 |
83% |
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| Read this as: "Manchester → 148 owners the model puts in the top tier for selling in the next year." If you list, buy, or invest in any of these markets, this is your shot-list. |
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→ Get the underlying owner file. Pro subscribers receive names, addresses, equity profiles, and signal history for these markets — filtered to their licensed territory, refreshed every Monday before 7 AM.
jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai | (603) 930-2222 | Single report $39.99 · Unlimited $149/mo
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| MA / VT / ME coverage in beta — not shown publicly until model coverage matches NH. |
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| How We Got Here
Every property below started in a pool of more than a million. Here’s how the funnel narrows from continent-wide to actionable.
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Properties valued (nationwide)
1,030,091
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New Hampshire
20,055
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Through revaluation pipeline
16,786
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Off-market & mispriced this week
19
2 underpriced · 17 overpriced
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| What’s on the Table
Across the 19 off-market properties we surfaced this week, the combined asking total is $19,906,899. Our independent valuation puts the true value at $17,958,155 — an implied $44,771 of mispricing sitting in deals that don’t appear on the MLS, Zillow, or Redfin.
Average asking price: $1,047,732 · Average AVM: $945,166 · Confidence floor: 70% (most clear 80%+).
The properties span auction reserves, withdrawn listings, owner-direct opportunities, distressed commercial, and capital-gains-pressure sellers. Sources are protected; the value is in the access.
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| Sample — Top 25 by Mispricing A representative slice; the full file lists every off-market property |
| # |
TYPE |
LOCATION |
REFAX
AVM |
ASK |
Δ |
ANALYTIC
CONFIDENCE |
| 1 |
OVER |
ROCHESTER, NH 🔒 |
$949,382 |
$1,100,000 |
+15.9% |
92% |
| 2 |
OVER |
ROCHESTER, NH 🔒 |
$949,382 |
$1,100,000 |
+15.9% |
92% |
| 3 |
OVER |
Andover, NH 03216 🔒 |
$410,511 |
$474,000 |
+15.5% |
95% |
| 4 |
UNDER |
Concord, NH 03301 🔒 |
$314,771 |
$270,000 |
−14.2% |
95% |
| 5 |
OVER |
Derry, NH 03038 🔒 |
$1,060,227 |
$1,199,900 |
+13.2% |
91% |
| 6 |
OVER |
MERRIMACK, NH 🔒 |
$989,312 |
$1,100,000 |
+11.2% |
90% |
| 7 |
OVER |
Dunbarton, NH 03046 🔒 |
$1,169,171 |
$1,298,000 |
+11.0% |
85% |
| 8 |
OVER |
Manchester, NH 03104 🔒 |
$856,020 |
$950,000 |
+11.0% |
88% |
| 9 |
OVER |
Manchester, NH 03104 🔒 |
$1,036,471 |
$1,149,999 |
+11.0% |
84% |
| 10 |
OVER |
Nashua, NH 03062 🔒 |
$1,010,262 |
$1,120,000 |
+10.9% |
88% |
| 11 |
OVER |
MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 |
$1,033,066 |
$1,145,000 |
+10.8% |
84% |
| 12 |
OVER |
MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 |
$880,426 |
$975,000 |
+10.7% |
87% |
| 13 |
OVER |
PEMBROKE, NH 🔒 |
$1,074,836 |
$1,190,000 |
+10.7% |
91% |
| 14 |
OVER |
Goffstown, NH 03045 🔒 |
$904,404 |
$1,000,000 |
+10.6% |
90% |
| 15 |
OVER |
Pittsburg, NH 03592 🔒 |
$996,130 |
$1,100,000 |
+10.4% |
74% |
| 16 |
OVER |
MANCHESTER, NH 🔒 |
$1,223,371 |
$1,350,000 |
+10.4% |
84% |
| 17 |
OVER |
Brentwood, NH 03833 🔒 |
$1,265,991 |
$1,395,000 |
+10.2% |
90% |
| 18 |
OVER |
Wilton, NH 03086 🔒 |
$1,179,992 |
$1,300,000 |
+10.2% |
90% |
| 19 |
UNDER |
Effingham, NH 03882 🔒 |
$654,430 |
$690,000 |
−5.4% |
91% |
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Want the full off-market file?
Every off-market property — all 19 addresses, owners, and signals — delivered to your inbox every Monday before 7 AM.
Single report $39.99 • $149/mo unlimited
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| Distress Signals by Market Active motivated-seller indicators |
| SIGNAL TYPE |
MARKET |
COUNT |
| High Equity Free Clear |
Derry, NH |
170 |
| Senior Owner |
Derry, NH |
152 |
| High Equity Free Clear |
Portsmouth, NH |
104 |
| High Equity |
Derry, NH |
71 |
| Expired Listing |
Amherst, NH |
59 |
| Death |
Laconia, NH |
55 |
| Death |
, NH |
47 |
| Absentee Owner |
Derry, NH |
40 |
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| HOW WE VALUE PROPERTIES |
The REFAX AVM is an ensemble that runs each property through several established analytic models in parallel and reconciles the outputs into a single estimate. The components include:
- Sales Comparison Approach — matched comparable sales by bedroom count, lot size, age, location, and property characteristics (5-factor model).
- Assessment-Calibrated Equalization — municipal assessed value adjusted by current equalization ratio.
- Equity / Cost Approach — reconstruction cost less depreciation, cross-checked against owner equity history.
- Distress & Income Models — income-cap for multifamily and commercial, distress-discount overlays for auctions and pre-foreclosure inventory.
Every estimate is then independently validated by our Fred & Ethel™ QA system. Fred re-values each property under tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits the underlying data integrity across multiple sources. Disagreements between models trigger analyst review before publication. |
Analytic Confidence reflects model agreement and comp quality: 90%+ strong 75-89% good 60-74% moderate <60% limited
GREEN = asking below estimate YELLOW = fairly priced RED = asking above estimate |
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All valuations are independently validated by the Fred & Ethel™ verification system. Fred re-values each property using tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits data integrity across multiple sources. Each property receives a confidence grade (A–F) before publication. This process mitigates errors, data anomalies, and model limitations. Grades reflect analytic rigor, not investment advice.
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Unlock the Full Intelligence Feed
You just saw 10 properties out of 31268 flagged this week. ReFax™ Pro subscribers get:
| ✓ Full street addresses on every property |
| ✓ Owner names, phones & email when available |
| ✓ 4-method AVM breakdown with confidence scores |
| ✓ AI-generated property assessments |
| ✓ Distress signal overlays & motivated seller alerts |
| ✓ Delivered to your inbox Mon & Wed before 7 AM |
Questions? jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222
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Monadnock Cyber, LLC
71 NH 101A Suite 11, Amherst, NH 03031
Jeff Stutzman • jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 |
This report is prepared exclusively for qualified investors and industry professionals. Information is derived from public records, verified commercial sources, and proprietary intelligence models. Not an offer to sell or solicitation. All data believed reliable but not guaranteed.
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