The Stutzman Real Estate Intelligence Report - Feb 23, 2026

 

MONADNOCK CYBER • INTELLIGENCE DIVISION FEBRUARY 23, 2026 PRIVATE • CONFIDENTIAL The Stutzman Report Every morning, our system scans 92 sources nationwide — MLS comps, tax assessments, transfer records, and third-party estimates — then tells you exactly which ones are underpriced, fairly valued, or overpriced. What you’re seeing below is the summary. If you’re a Monadnock Cyber client, partner agent, or teammate — you get the full details for free. Every address. Every owner. Every signal. Delivered to your inbox before your first showing of the day. Buying or selling? Get ground truth. No marketing noise. No staged photos. Just machine-verified valuations across 828,000+ properties so you know exactly what a property is worth before you make a move. If you’re not working with us yet? You’re looking at the same data your competitors are already acting on. We made three referrals this week — all sourced from this intelligence. The addresses behind these numbers are worth real money. Ready to stop guessing? — jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai  |  (603) 930-2222 828,399 PROPERTIES 17 UNDERPRICED 808,274 FAIR VALUE 14,529 OVERPRICED 89% CONFIDENCE ±5.0% AVG ERROR  Underpriced Opportunities Top 17 by discount # LOCATION AVM ESTIMATE ASKING/SOLD DISCOUNT CONF METHODS DOM 1 Wilton, NH $348,602 $291,000 -16.5% 62% A C — 2 Hampton, NH $580,756 $485,000 -16.5% 64% A C 7 3 Concord, NH $416,853 $350,000 -16.0% 68% A C 145 4 Wilton, NH $371,356 $312,000 -16.0% 62% A C — 5 Amherst, NH $452,464 $383,000 -15.4% 75% A C — 6 Wilton, NH $403,153 $343,000 -14.9% 62% A C — 7 Amherst, NH $474,349 $405,000 -14.6% 75% A C — 8 Amherst, NH $507,134 $440,000 -13.2% 75% A C — 9 Amherst, NH $507,134 $440,000 -13.2% 75% A C — 10 Wilton, NH $449,303 $392,540 -12.6% 62% A C — 11 Amherst, NH $536,572 $474,000 -11.7% 75% A C — 12 Wilton, NH $465,838 $412,000 -11.6% 62% A C — 13 Wilton, NH $466,664 $413,000 -11.5% 62% A C — 14 Wilton, NH $468,308 $415,000 -11.4% 62% A C — 15 Amherst, NH $548,007 $488,000 -11.0% 75% A C — 16 Wilton, NH $481,906 $432,000 -10.4% 62% A C — 17 Amherst, NH $559,047 $502,000 -10.2% 75% A C —  Overpriced — Proceed with Caution Top 25 by premium # LOCATION AVM ESTIMATE ASKING/SOLD PREMIUM CONF METHODS DOM 1 ELKTON, MD $1,431,587 $709,060,000 +49429.7% 78% A D — 2 BALTIMORE, MD $2,540,910 $900,000,000 +35320.4% 78% A D — 3 GLEN BURNIE, MD $1,379,473 $280,459,233 +20230.9% 78% A D — 4 COLUMBIA, MD $1,170,976 $200,896,000 +17056.3% 78% A D — 5 CROFTON, MD $682,289 $112,500,000 +16388.6% 78% A D — 6 NEW MARKET, MD $660,314 $92,500,000 +13908.5% 78% A D — 7 Hamden, CT $1,258,911 $168,000,000 +13244.9% 78% A D — 8 Trumbull, CT $720,076 $90,955,593 +12531.4% 78% A D — 9 West Hartford, CT $849,303 $104,900,000 +12251.3% 78% A D — 10 POTOMAC, MD $1,390,067 $165,000,000 +11769.9% 78% A D — 11 Trumbull, CT $724,919 $82,000,000 +11211.6% 78% A D — 12 Seattle, WA $1,826,525 $190,566,200 +10333.3% 78% A D — 13 Suffield, CT $741,163 $76,088,165 +10166.0% 78% A D — 14 WEXFORD, PA $820,847 $79,000,000 +9524.2% 78% A D — 15 Waterbury, CT $2,412,212 $230,043,624 +9436.6% 78% A D — 16 Manchester, CT $2,296,434 $210,150,000 +9051.1% 78% A D — 17 GAMBRILLS, MD $920,503 $83,650,000 +8987.4% 78% A D — 18 TOWSON, MD $1,427,185 $123,500,000 +8553.4% 78% A D — 19 Willington, CT $60,375,547 $5,000,000,000 +8181.5% 78% A D — 20 NORTH BETHESDA, MD $1,754,280 $133,800,000 +7527.1% 78% A D — 21 MURRAY HILL, NY $2,899,222 $211,180,180 +7184.0% 78% A D — 22 SEVERNA PARK, MD $851,727 $61,000,000 +7061.9% 78% A D — 23 CLINTON, NY $3,414,778 $243,500,000 +7030.8% 78% A D — 24 KENSINGTON, MD $1,088,761 $76,250,000 +6903.4% 78% A D — 25 Westport, CT $1,927,322 $130,000,000 +6645.1% 78% A D — Distress Signals by Market Active motivated-seller indicators SIGNAL TYPE MARKET COUNT High Equity Free Clear Derry, NH 170 Senior Owner Derry, NH 152 High Equity Free Clear Portsmouth, NH 104 High Equity Derry, NH 71 Expired Listing Amherst, NH 57 Absentee Owner Derry, NH 40 Senior Owner Portsmouth, NH 40 Absentee Owner Portsmouth, NH 38 VALUATION METHODS A = MLS Comps    B = DRA Tax Assessment    C = OmniSkip Estimate    D = Transfer Price    |   GREEN = underpriced  YELLOW = fair value   RED = overpriced   GREY = insufficient data Want the Full Picture? This report shows city-level summaries. Our clients get full addresses, owner details, AI-generated property assessments, and distress signal overlays — delivered before your first cup of coffee. Jeff Stutzman • (603) 930-2222 • jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai Stutzman Intelligence Group • Monadnock Cyber, LLC • eXp Realty 71 NH 101A Suite 11, Amherst, NH 03031 Jeff Stutzman • jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 This report is prepared exclusively for qualified investors and industry professionals. Information is derived from public records, MLS data, and proprietary intelligence sources. Not an offer to sell or solicitation. All data believed reliable but not guaranteed. Unsubscribe • You received this because you are in our intelligence distribution network.

Stop Overpaying for Real Estate. We're Watching.

Stop Overpaying for Real Estate. We're Watching.

By Jeff Stutzman | Monadnock Cyber Intelligence | February 2026

You just paid $1.75 million for a house in XXXXXX, Connecticut.

Congratulations. It's worth $1.22 million.

You overpaid by 43.5%. That's $530,000 you lit on fire because your agent "felt good about the comps" and your lender rubber-stamped a number that made their commission work.

Nobody told you. Nobody was looking. Nobody cared — because everyone in that transaction got paid whether you got a fair deal or not.

We care. And we're looking at everything.

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We Built the Machine That Catches This

At Monadnock Cyber, we don't sell houses. We sell intelligence.

While the rest of the real estate industry is still pulling comps from a 3-ring binder and calling it "market analysis," we built an automated valuation system that cross-references four independent pricing methodologies on every property we track:

• Method A — MLS comparable sales analysis (what similar properties actually sold for)
• Method B — Municipal assessment data, adjusted by state equalization ratios (what the town thinks it's worth, corrected for political math)
• Method C — Skip trace equity modeling (what the financial footprint says)
• Method D — Transfer price indexing (what the deed actually recorded)

When those four numbers agree, we have high confidence. When they don't, someone's getting taken for a ride.

We color-code every property:

• GREEN — Underpriced. The seller left money on the table. The buyer got a deal.
• YELLOW — Fair value. Both sides can sleep at night.
• RED — Overpriced. Someone paid too much. Period.
• GREY — Insufficient data. We don't guess.

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The Numbers Don't Lie. People Do.

Right now, we're actively tracking 38,967 property valuations across 15 states and DC, fed by 1.67 million distress signals from 33 independent data sources. This isn't a weekend hobby. This is an intelligence operation.

Here's what we found in just the last seven days:

671

Properties Overpriced

RED — in 7 days

$942M

Collectively Overpaid

One week of data

That's not a typo. Nearly a billion dollars in unnecessary cost — in seven days — just in the properties we've valued so far. Imagine what a full year looks like.

That's one week. One. The machine never stops collecting.

Wall of Shame

Location	Paid	Actually Worth	Overpaid By
XXXXXX, NH	$1,675,000	$1,266,783	32.2%
XXXXXX, CT	$1,860,000	$1,387,638	34.0%
XXXXXX, CT	$1,750,000	$1,219,529	43.5%
XXXXXX, CT	$1,650,000	$1,120,786	47.2%
XXXXXX, WV	$27,200,000	$18,732,363	45.2%

That NH property? Lakefront New Hampshire. Beautiful area. Terrible deal. Someone paid $408,000 more than they should have because nobody in the room had independent valuation data.

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This Isn't Just New Hampshire

We started in the Lakes Region. Now we're everywhere that matters.

PennsylvaniaConnecticutNew YorkMarylandVirginiaNorth CarolinaArizonaWest VirginiaWashington, DCVermontColoradoMaineMassachusettsNew Hampshire

You think Manhattan commercial real estate is priced rationally? We found a "luxury hotel" property in  valued at $111 million that traded at $260 million. That's a 134% premium. Somebody's CFO should be asking questions (OR FIRED!).

This is what happens when buyers rely on the same people selling the deal to also validate the deal.
It's the fox guarding the henhouse, and the fox is wearing a blazer.

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How We're Different

Traditional real estate runs on three things: gut instinct, motivated reasoning, and information asymmetry. The agent knows more than you. The seller knows more than you. The lender just wants to close.

We flip that model. Our system:

• Runs 24/7. Automated collectors pull data from public records, MLS feeds, municipal assessments, and federal registries while you sleep.
• Uses four independent valuation methods — not one, and not the Zestimate. All four must converge before we call a property fairly priced.
• Covers 158 million+ U.S. properties. That's 99% of the U.S. population's real estate footprint.
• Flags overpriced deals in real time. Before you wire the money. Before the ink dries.
• Has no commission bias. We don't get paid more when you pay more. Novel concept in this industry.

---

The Intelligence Advantage

Here's what the billion-dollar Wall Street firms already know: real estate is an information game. The party with the best data wins. Blackstone doesn't buy a strip mall because the listing agent said it's a "great opportunity." They run the numbers. Multiple numbers. From multiple sources.

You deserve the same advantage.

We call it REFAX — Real Estate Financial Analysis, Cross-Referenced. Every property gets a color. Every color is backed by math. Every decision you make is informed by data, not by someone who gets 3% of whatever you pay.

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What This Means for You

If you're buying: You should know the real value before you bid. Not the listing price. Not the "estimated market value" your agent pulled from a single source. The actual, multi-method, cross-referenced value.

If you're selling: You should know exactly where your property sits. GREEN means you're priced to sell fast. RED means your agent priced it to maximize their commission, not your outcome. YELLOW means you're in the zone.

If you're investing: You should be looking at our GREEN list. Properties where the math says there's value the market hasn't priced in yet. That's not speculation — that's arbitrage.

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We're Not Done

Residential. Commercial. Land. We value all of it. And we're moving quickly into business brokering and M&A — because the same information asymmetry that lets someone overpay for a lakehouse also lets someone overpay for a company.

38,967 valuations is the starting point. We're expanding coverage weekly. More states. More property types. More asset classes. The goal is simple: make information asymmetry a thing of the past.

The industry won't like it. They never do when someone turns the lights on.

But here's the thing — we're not asking permission.

Jeff Stutzman is the founder of Monadnock Cyber Intelligence and Monadnock Cyber (NH). He spent 35+ years in intelligence and cybersecurity before deciding the real estate industry needed the same treatment. He was right.

Have a property you want valued? Think you overpaid? Contact us — we'll tell you the truth, even if your agent won't, even if you don't like it.

Monadnock Cyber | New Hampshire

Intelligence-Driven Real Estate

92 Data Sources. No Guessing. This is Intelligence applied to Real Estate

Feb 20, 2026  ·  REFax Report  ·  Monadnock Cyber Intelligence  ·  NH Property Intelligence

Every tracked property in New Hampshire. Four independent valuation methods. Weekly. This is what $4.8 billion in real estate looks like when you actually run the numbers — not guess at them. AI-generated. 92 data sources. 76% average confidence. 7.6% average error margin, validated against closed sales.

6,339 Props Tracked

18 Underpriced

1,481 Fair Value

79 Overpriced

892 Distress Signals

92 Data Sources

$4.8B Total Value

Intelligence Advantage

The real estate agents who win in New Hampshire
aren't guessing anymore.
They're running Monadnock Cyber.

While your competition is pulling a Zillow number and hoping for the best, Monadnock Cyber agents walk into every listing appointment with six months of property intelligence, four valuation methods, and 92 data sources behind them. That's not a competitive edge. That's a different game entirely.

// What This Is

The REFax Report is a weekly intelligence product. Not a market commentary. Not a hot-take from an agent who just listed their neighbor's house. An actual intelligence product — built on 92 data sources, validated against closed sales, running four independent AVM methods against every tracked property in New Hampshire.

Every week, the platform scores 6,339 properties. It assigns a valuation from each method, weights them by confidence, and flags anything that deviates meaningfully from estimated market value. You get the output. You decide what to do with it.

Intelligence Standard

AI-generated. 92 data sources. 76% average confidence. 7.6% average error margin — validated against closed sales. That's not a disclaimer. That's a performance record.

This is not Zillow. Zillow publishes one estimate and prays you don't question it. The REFax runs four methods simultaneously, weights the outputs, and tells you the confidence interval. If two methods agree and two don't, you know that. If all four agree, you really know that.

// AVM Engine — Four-Method Valuation Stack

## Method A — Comparable Sales (weight: 35%)

Matched comps by size, location, age, condition. Adjusted.

## Method B — Cost Approach (weight: 20%)

Land value + depreciated replacement cost of improvements.

## Method C — Income Approach (weight: 25%)

Market rent × GRM or cap rate, where rental data applies.

## Method D — Automated Index Model (weight: 20%)

ML regression on 92 source variables. Temporal weighting.

Final estimate = weighted blend, filtered by inter-method variance

Confidence flag = triggered when all four methods agree ± 8%

Outlier flag = triggered when list price diverges > 15% from estimate

// Where the Deals Are — Underpriced Markets

This week: 18 properties are listed below their AI-estimated market value. Combined gap: over $1.1 million. Sellers who don't know their own value. Estates. Motivated situations. Properties that didn't get the memo.

Town	Props	Avg Gap	Confidence	Signal
Amherst	8	−$64,113	75%	Strong buy signal
Wilton	8	−$55,564	62%	Moderate — verify comps
Concord	1	−$67,120	67%	Investigate — single property
Hampton	1	−$96,530	64%	Coastal — seasonal factors apply

Buy Signal

Amherst leads the state with 8 underpriced listings averaging $64,113 below estimated value — at 75% AI confidence. That's not a rounding error. That's a pattern. Something is happening in Amherst that the market hasn't priced correctly yet. The REFax found it. Now you know.

"18 properties. $1.1 million in combined pricing gaps. The market missed them. We didn't."

// Where Sellers Are Dreaming — Overpriced Markets

79 properties are currently listed above their AI-estimated market value. Some are marginally off. Some are egregiously wrong. The data doesn't care about feelings.

Town	Props	Avg Premium	Confidence	Assessment
Salem	2	+$1,220,955	89%	Dramatically overpriced
Amherst	32	+$418,847	75%	Systemic overpricing
Portsmouth	2	+$285,348	94%	High-confidence overpricing
Nashua	2	+$174,288	75%	Overpriced at scale
Manchester	4	+$141,631	95%	Very high confidence

Reality Check — Salem, NH

Two listings. Average premium: $1,220,955 above estimated market value. Confidence: 89%. Those sellers need a reality check. The REFax has the receipts. If you're buying in Salem right now without running the numbers, you're trusting vibes over data.

Amherst: Both Lists

Amherst appears on both the underpriced and overpriced lists this week — 8 underpriced listings averaging −$64K and 32 overpriced listings averaging +$419K. This isn't a contradiction. It's a bifurcated market. Some sellers priced correctly. Most are reaching. The REFax tells you which is which.

// County Signal Map — 90-Day Intelligence

Property signals are pre-transaction indicators: expired listings, ownership changes, death, divorce, relocation, geographic farm activity, distress patterns. They tell you where activity is building before it shows up on the MLS. 892 active distress signals statewide this week.

County	Signals (90 days)	Top Signal Types
Rockingham	225	Expired listings, property sales, relocations
Hillsborough	218	Death, divorce, geographic farm
Merrimack	68	Active listings, property sales
Strafford	61	Expired listings, new relocations
Carroll	43	Vacation property activity
Grafton	43	Geographic farm, sales
Belknap	40	Lakes Region residential
Cheshire	21	Monadnock region

Why Signals Matter

A distress signal doesn't mean a property is for sale. It means something changed. Death. Divorce. Job change. Expired listing. Corporate relocation. These are pre-market events — the 60–90 day window before a property hits MLS, when motivated sellers are reachable and competition is low. The REFax maps them. What you do with the map is your business.

Rockingham and Hillsborough together account for 443 signals — 60% of the statewide total. That's where the population is. That's where the transactions are. That's where the intelligence matters most.

// What the Numbers Actually Mean

Most real estate data is backward-looking. Closed sales. Median prices. Days on market. You're reading yesterday's newspaper and calling it market intelligence. The REFax is forward-looking — valuations against live listings, signals against future inventory, confidence intervals that tell you how sure to be.

The 7.6% average error margin, validated against closed sales, is a calibration benchmark. When the model says a property is worth $400,000, it's been right within $30,400 on average, historically. That's not perfect. It's disclosed and honest. More importantly, it's better than most human estimates — and humans don't tell you their error rate.

"The market doesn't lie. It just doesn't explain itself. The REFax does."

This week: $4.8 billion in tracked real estate. 18 properties with documented pricing gaps totaling over $1.1 million. 79 properties where sellers are pricing against hope, not data. 892 signals pointing to transactions that haven't listed yet. 92 data sources making sure nothing got missed.

⚠ Time-Sensitive Intelligence

Those 18 underpriced properties won't stay underpriced.

The $96,530 gap in Hampton. The 8 listings in Amherst averaging $64K below market. Every day you don't have this report, someone else does. Some of them are your competition. Some of them are the buyers you're trying to represent.

The REFax drops every week. This week's deals are live right now. Next week's report will have different properties — and some of this week's underpriced listings will already be under contract. The window is the window.

● Live Now18 underpriced properties in NH  ·  $1.1M in combined gaps  ·  892 distress signals  ·  79 sellers who don't know their numberUpdated: Feb 20, 2026

Get the REFax Before Your Competition Does.

Weekly. Every tracked NH property. Every valuation gap. Every distress signal. The agents who have it know something the agents who don't have it don't.

Get On the List →

Disclaimer: All valuations are AI-generated estimates produced by the REFax AVM. These estimates are informational only and do not constitute appraisals, investment advice, or offers to buy or sell real estate. Estimates are based on publicly available data and algorithmic modeling. No demographic or protected class data was used. Consult a licensed appraiser or real estate professional before making financial decisions. Monadnock Cyber is not a licensed real estate brokerage.