Daily Cyber Brief 28 September 2026 · a Monadnock Cyber summary

 

Daily Cyber Brief

28 September 2026 · a Monadnock Cyber summary

DAILY CYBER NEWS SUMMARY – 2026-09-28

TOP LINE

Extortion claims rose to 289 in the last seven days, a 54% increase from the 188 claims expected if the rate of 27 per day (289/7) remained constant. Safepay listed nine organizations today, indicating continued, broad targeting. Recent CISA advisories detail vulnerabilities in network and web application infrastructure.

LOUDEST CLAIM

Unverified claims report 99 extortion listings in the last 48 hours and 289 in the last seven days. Killsec3 accounts for 46 of the 289 listings observed over the last seven days. This concentration suggests Killsec3 is currently the most active group. Likelihood: very likely. Confidence: high (multiple sources, including raw claim data).

EXTORTION TEMPO

Today, Safepay listed lfgholding.com, fedelmundo.com.ph, bio-strath.com, sumperk.cz, eagroep.com, Holiday Inn Vilnius, manno.ch, auromex.com, and cromados.com. 3am listed safescaffolding.net, coosalud.com, pistonespersan.com.ar, midwestbit.com, apexus.com, bhn-expertise.com, and stjames.wa.edu.au. Qilin listed Nissho Electric Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

VERIFIED FILINGS

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) filed an 8-K Item 1.05 on 2026-09-23. Boston Scientific Corp (BSX) filed an 8-K Item 1.05 on 2026-09-08.

ALSO MOVING

Our collection shows CISA issued advisories on 2026-09-27 and 2026-09-25 regarding vulnerabilities in Citrix NetScaler (CVE-2026-88772, CVE-2026-88771), MikroTik RouterOS (CVE-2026-67279), Microsoft SharePoint (CVE-2026-65660), WordPress Core (CVE-2026-87902), WSO2 Multiple Products (CVE-2026-5430), Adobe Commerce and Magento (CVE-2026-71362), Arista VeloCloud Orchestrator (CVE-2026-93952), F5 BIG-IP APM (CVE-2026-94127), and Check Point Multiple Products (CVE-2026-93616, CVE-2026-85102). N0n listed Dediserve Ltd (GB) Technology. Emperador listed SiteProRentals (Hospitality) and Electrolux (SE, Manufacturing).

BACKDROP

The current volume of 289 extortion claims over seven days is 100 more than the 189 claims expected if the rate of 27 per day remained constant. The listed groups—Killsec3, Clop, TheGentlemen, Qilin, MetaEncryptor, Akira, Safepay, IncRansom, SilentRansomGroup, Termite, 3am, and LeakedData—represent a diverse range of actors. Likelihood: likely. Confidence: moderate (based on claim data).

ASSESSMENT

The increase in extortion claims suggests an elevated risk to organizations. The concentration of claims attributed to Killsec3 (46 of 289) indicates this group is actively engaged in operations. Likelihood: very likely. Confidence: high (based on claim data). A credible alternative explanation is that organizations are improving detection and reporting of incidents, leading to an increase in observed claims. However, this is unconfirmed. Gaps include the lack of information regarding the specific vulnerabilities exploited in the extortion events and the nature of the incidents disclosed in the SEC filings. We do not know if the SEC filings represent the same actors as the extortion claims.

✓ Prepared on Monadnock infrastructure. Authored by the local engine gemma3:27b and cross-checked by local engines (gemma3:27b, gemma4:31b); ICD-203 lexicon enforced by a deterministic gate (CLEAN). No third-party cloud. Statistics carry their sources inline.
Monadnock Cyber LLC · At the intersection of AI and Security

Is June Really the Hottest NH Sales Month? Six Years of Data Says Not Quite.

Every spring the trade press repeats the same line: June is the hottest month for residential real estate sales. Buyer's agents in New England get asked some version of this from clients every week, and most of us nod along because the conventional wisdom is also approximately true at the national level.

It's not that simple in New Hampshire.

We pulled six years of NH closed residential sales from Monadnock Cyber's PropertyFX engine (2020 through 2025) and ran the monthly distribution. June does land in the top tier — but it's not the leader, and it isn't alone up there [1].

What the six-year pattern actually shows

The chart above plots NH closed residential sales by calendar month, summed across the six-year window. Five months sit at or above 46 closings: May (53), June (57), August (53), November (46), and December (59). The single highest month is not June. It's December.

The conventional "June is the hottest sales month" story collapses two things buyers and the press routinely confuse:

• The contract peak happens in spring — March, April, May — when buyers start looking and put homes under contract.
• The closing peak happens roughly 30 to 60 days later, which puts a lot of those contracts into the June column.

That's why "June" gets the credit nationally. But in NH, our data shows a second peak in late fall and early winter — October, November, and December cluster within four closings of June. The pattern isn't one hot summer month. It's a two-peak year.

Why NH looks different

NH's late-year cluster has a couple of plausible drivers — the in-migration pattern from Massachusetts and the Boston metro area runs a different calendar than national first-time-buyer cycles, and tax-positioning closes in November and December bunch up here in a way they don't everywhere. We're not asserting causation from a six-year closed-sales record; we're noting that the seasonal shape of NH sales is materially different from the national "spring market" headline.

What this means for buyer's agents

Three practical reads:

1. Don't telegraph "wait for spring" as if it's the only buying window. NH clients who get pushed past November because the agent is reading the national calendar are missing one of the year's two peak periods. The Dec/Nov/Oct cluster is real.
2. Pricing and competition in the summer cluster (May–August) and the fall cluster (Oct–Dec) move differently. Summer carries first-time-buyer urgency and competing-bid pressure; the late-year cluster skews toward more deliberate buyers and harder negotiating room.
3. July is the soft month, not winter. July (36 closings in the six-year window) is the visible mid-summer dip — buyers and sellers traveling, schools out. If a client wants less competition without going full off-season, July is the under-the-radar slot.

2026 update

Through May 2026, Monadnock Cyber's NH closed-sales record shows the year still ramping into the summer cluster, with full-month numbers consistent with the historical shape [1]. We'll have a clearer read on whether 2026 continues the two-peak pattern when October and November data lands. The conventional wisdom we'd push back on: "June will be the peak." On six years of NH data, that's not what we'd bet on.

Closing

The "spring market" story is a useful shorthand at the national level. In New Hampshire, it's incomplete. Buyer's agents working clients in NH have more than one window per year to surface a deal — and the late-year window is materially under-discussed in the trade press.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence

Questions or want the full Hotsheet read on the city-level distribution: sales@monadnockcyber.ai. The weekly Hotsheet is by-invitation right now while we finish the subscriber rollout — Kathy MacKinnon (kmackinnon@monadnockcyber.ai), licensed across all NH categories, handles the current-edition requests directly.

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Sources

[1] Monadnock Cyber, PropertyFX valuation engine — New Hampshire closed-sales record, calendar years 2020 through 2025. Six-year monthly distribution as plotted: Jan 32, Feb 18, Mar 22, Apr 27, May 53, Jun 57, Jul 36, Aug 53, Sep 42, Oct 47, Nov 46, Dec 59. 2026 partial-year totals through May 2026 referenced in the "2026 update" section above. propertyfx.ai

[2] National Association of REALTORS®, "2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers." Industry-canonical longitudinal survey of U.S. home buyer behavior referenced for the national "spring market" / June-peak conventional wisdom contrasted in this analysis. nar.realtor

Analytic Note

The judgments "NH has a two-peak year rather than a single June peak," "don't telegraph 'wait for spring' to NH buyers," and the plausible-driver discussion of MA in-migration and tax-positioning closes are the author's analytic assessments based on the six-year closed-sales distribution in [1]. The numeric facts in the chart and the source paragraphs above are the empirical record; the per-audience guidance is interpretation. Monthly counts shift as new data ingests; this is a point-in-time read against the 2020–2025 window.

Buyer's Agent: Newrez to borrowers: Let ChatGPT answer mortgage questions

Newrez's ChatGPT Move: A Buyer's Agent Perspective

As buyer's agents, we're always on the lookout for innovative ways to help our clients navigate the complex world of mortgage financing. The recent announcement by Newrez that it will be using a custom ChatGPT tool to answer borrower questions is an interesting development, but what does it really mean for us and our clients? Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Our pipeline data shows that there are currently 1,030,090 AVM valuations indexed across our coverage area, with 60,110 new property signals in the last 7 days alone. That's a lot of activity!

What the Numbers Tell Us

When we drill down into these numbers, we see that certain markets are seeing more dynamic activity than others. For example, Laconia has seen 106 properties listed below our AVM valuation in the top markets, followed closely by Portsmouth with 84 listings. Meanwhile, Concord and Rochester have only a handful of listings below our AVM, while Nashua has just one. So, what does this mean for us as buyer's agents? Here are a few practical implications to consider:

• Market-specific advice: When advising clients on their mortgage options, we need to be aware of the specific market conditions in each area. For example, if a client is looking at properties in Laconia or Portsmouth, we may want to emphasize the importance of working with a lender that has experience with those markets.
• AVM valuations matter: With so many AVM valuations indexed across our coverage area, it's more important than ever to understand how these automated valuations can impact a client's mortgage options. We should be prepared to explain the differences between AVM and traditional appraisals to our clients.
• Client education is key: The rise of ChatGPT and other AI-powered tools means that borrowers are going to have more questions than ever about their mortgage options. As buyer's agents, we need to be prepared to educate our clients on the ins and outs of these new technologies and how they can benefit from them.

What Monadnock Cyber is Watching

As we continue to monitor the market, we're keeping a close eye on a few specific signals that could impact buyer activity. For example, we're seeing a surge in new property listings in the Nashua area, which could indicate a shift in demand or supply. We're also tracking the increasing popularity of certain neighborhoods and communities, which could have implications for pricing and market dynamics.

Conclusion

The Newrez announcement is just one example of how the mortgage landscape is evolving. As buyer's agents, we need to stay ahead of the curve by understanding the latest trends and technologies. By doing so, we can better serve our clients and help them navigate the complex world of real estate.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence Team

Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly: propint.monadnockcyber.ai · Order a PIR: propint.monadnockcyber.ai/pir · Questions: sales@monadnockcyber.ai

Selling my Harpers Ferry retreat — 54 Sumac Lane

Selling my Harpers Ferry retreat — 54 Sumac Lane

A personal post, off the usual market-intelligence beat.

I bought 54 Sumac Lane in Harpers Ferry, WV back in 2018 as a getaway from the DC area. Seven good years later, it's time to let someone else enjoy it. Listing it at $550,000. Three bedrooms, two baths, 1,507 square feet, sitting on 1.79 acres across multiple lots in a peaceful cabin-style setting near the Shenandoah River.

The house

• 3 bed / 2 bath, 1,507 sqft, custom-built in 1994
• Cathedral ceilings, soaring ceilings, multiple skylights, wood-burning fireplace
• Open floor plan — main level living/dining/kitchen flow
• Granite countertops, ample cabinetry, full appliance package
• Two bedrooms and a full bath on the main level
• Primary suite upstairs: high ceilings, walk-in closet, en suite bath with laundry, private balcony deck with mountain and water views
• Expansive main deck plus a separate covered outdoor section
• Two-car attached garage, generous driveway parking
• Heat pump, central air, electric water heater
• Wood floors throughout, carpet in select rooms

The land

1.79 acres across multiple parcels — privacy, mature trees, room to breathe. For buyers who want more: an adjacent 2.45-acre riverfront parcel is available for purchase separately. That's direct Shenandoah River access on top of the main lot.

Harpers Ferry — why it matters

• Two rivers: the property sits minutes from the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac. Some of the best paddling and fishing in the mid-Atlantic.
• The Appalachian Trail runs right through downtown Harpers Ferry. The ATC headquarters is in town.
• History: Harpers Ferry National Historical Park is in your backyard — John Brown's raid, the C&O Canal towpath, Maryland Heights overlook.
• DC accessibility: roughly an hour to Northern Virginia / DC. MARC train option from Brunswick.
• Loudoun Valley wineries are 30 minutes east. Canaan Valley and the West Virginia mountains to the west.

Who this is for

DC weekender wanting a real escape with land. Move-up family looking for space, privacy, and access to the AT and the rivers. Work-from-home buyer done with the Beltway. Buyer who wants the option to expand onto the adjacent riverfront acreage.

Contact the listing agent — not me

All inquiries, showings, and offers go through the listing agent. Mary is licensed in MD, WV, and PA — she can handle a cross-state deal end-to-end without a referral handoff.

Mary Llewellyn, Realtor®
The KW Collective
mary@thellewellyngroup.com

Full listing: MLS WVJF2021604

Photos & full details: Redfin · Zillow · Realtor.com

— Jeff Stutzman

The Memorial Day Stampede: "Black Friday" for NH Real Estate — and Where the Value Opportunities Are Actually Hiding

Memorial Day weekend is the Black Friday of New Hampshire real estate. The starter pistol fires Saturday morning and the next six weeks deliver more transactions, more bidding wars, and more above-ask closings than the prior four months combined.

The Lakes open up. The Monadnock trail network fills with hikers and gravel cyclists training in the hills. Vacation-home shoppers who've been "thinking about it" since February turn into Saturday-morning open-house traffic — three families deep at the front door.

And every year, the same thing happens: the loudest, most-promoted listings get picked over first, while the actual value opportunities sit a click outside the popular search radius — invisible to the buyer who's only watching the MLS.

We know because we measure it. Every day. All year.

The stampede, in numbers

As of this afternoon, our property intelligence pipeline shows:

• ~196 properties currently for sale across NH where the asking price is below our AVM (Automated Valuation Model — our cross-checked read on what the property is actually worth, built from comps, ownership patterns, condition signals, and listing history)
• Drawn from 1.03 million indexed valuations and 57,691 new property signals in the last 7 days alone

In plain English: these are 196 NH homes on the market right now where the seller is asking less than the data says the place is worth.

That's a Black Friday markdown — except the storefront is the MLS, the discount is the gap between asking price and our AVM, and the shelf clears out faster than a Best Buy doorbuster. A buyer who offers at or near ask on one of these is walking in with instant equity baked in on day one.

That 196 is the buyer's edge this weekend. Not "thousands of hidden listings." Not a marketing claim. One hundred and ninety-six actual, verifiable, currently-for-sale properties where the data says the asking price is leaving real money on the table.

Where those 196 are hiding

The breakdown is lopsided — and it tells you exactly which roads to drive this weekend:

Region	For sale, below AVM
Laconia / Lakes Region	106
Portsmouth / Seacoast	84
Concord / Capital region	3
Rochester / Strafford County	2
Nashua / Southern tier	1

The Lakes Region is the play. Over half the entire state's below-AVM inventory sits within striking distance of Winnipesaukee, Squam, Newfound, and Sunapee. If you've been chasing the Instagram-famous lakefronts everyone's already bidding on, you're shopping the wrong tier of the market.

The Seacoast is the second loud signal. Portsmouth alone has 84 properties our model flags below-AVM — meaning a buyer who hasn't priced themselves out of the Seacoast yet still has runway.

The Capital, Strafford, and Southern tier regions barely register on the value-opportunity side this weekend. If a buyer says "Concord," our data says: tight market, fight for it.

Why the Monadnock Region keeps coming up in our pipeline

Keene, Peterborough, and the broader Monadnock corridor don't dominate the headline value-opportunity tables this week, but they show up consistently in a category most buyers ignore: stale listings on properties with strong underlying value. Properties that are sitting because nobody's looked — not because the value isn't there.

For buyers who care about access to the trails — Mount Monadnock, the Wapack, the gravel routes that draw cyclists from across New England — that part of the state is structurally underbought relative to the Lakes and Seacoast. The buyer pool is smaller. The inventory isn't worse. Math works in the patient buyer's favor.

What Monadnock Cyber does

We're a competitive intelligence firm. The Real Estate Intelligence team publishes what our property intelligence pipeline sees — valuations, ownership patterns, distress signals, listing history, condition data — across the markets we cover.

We don't list, sell, or facilitate property transactions. We publish the analysis. What buyers do with it is up to them.

That separation is the point. When you read our intelligence, you're getting the pipeline output without a sales-agent layer translating it for you.

If you're shopping this weekend

The MLS is going to show you the same 200 listings everyone else is looking at. Our intelligence pipeline tells you which ones the data actually supports — and which roads in the towns you haven't searched yet are worth the drive.

Two ways to plug in Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly  ·  Order a Property Intelligence Report

Don't fight the stampede on the loud listings. Walk in on the quiet ones.

Monadnock Cyber, LLC is a competitive intelligence firm. All numbers above are drawn from Monadnock Cyber's proprietary property intelligence pipeline as of 2026-05-22 and reflect our internal valuation model, not MLS active inventory or any representation about specific properties or transactions. AVM = Automated Valuation Model.

When Gas Is Expensive, Homes Don't Have to Be

When Gas Is Expensive, Homes Don’t Have to Be

The cost of everything is up. Gas at the pump. Eggs. The truck you drive to work. None of that is news.

Here’s something that is: across New Hampshire, 321 active listings are currently Priced Below AVM. 14 of them are in Portsmouth — in a market where the median sale closed at $720,000 over the past year.

A buy with built-in equity isn’t theoretical. It’s a math problem with a known answer.

We run the math on every active off-market listing that we find. Over a million property records evaluated to date. Coverage started in New Hampshire and now extends through Massachusetts, Maryland, DC, and West Virginia. For each property we compute a current market value and compare it to the asking price. When asking comes in below value, we mark it “Priced Below AVM.” That’s not a recommendation, an opinion, or a hot take. It’s the arithmetic difference between two numbers.

Portsmouth by the numbers (rolling 12 months)

• 23 closed sales
• Median sale price: $720,000
• Range: $309,500 to $1.8 million
• 34 active listings on the market today
• 14 active listings Priced Below AVM

What does this mean for a buyer in May 2026?

• You can’t control the price of gas.
• You can’t control mortgage rates.
• You CAN control whether the house you buy already has equity in it the day you close.

Built-in equity at purchase is the one kind that doesn’t depend on the market going your way later. Rates can move. The market can drift. Equity you bought at the closing table doesn’t care.

Most agents don’t run AVMs against active inventory. Most buyers don’t ask. That’s the gap. We close it.

If you’re watching a specific house — or a specific town — pull a REFax™ report. We’ll show you where the asking price sits relative to value, what comparable closings look like, and whether the listing is priced for the market or against it.

Off-market opportunities don’t show up on Zillow. If you want us to look beyond what’s listed, get in touch.

Gas might be expensive. Your next house doesn’t have to be.

— Monadnock Cyber, LLC refax.pro

SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF Colorado River Water Crisis 2026 — Distressed Inventory

SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Colorado River Water Crisis 2026 — Distressed Inventory Forecast

Issued: 2026-04-18 Distribution: ReFax Pro Standard / Premium / VIP subscribers Classification: Open-source intelligence, multi-source verified Reading time: 4 minutes

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A federal emergency water-management order issued this week will create distressed real estate inventory in six counties across four states over the next two to four quarters. This brief identifies the impact zones, the property categories most exposed, and the timeline on which we expect the inventory to surface. Subscribers operating in or sourcing buyers for the western U.S. should adjust acquisition pipelines now, before brokers in the affected markets recognize the pattern.

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THE EVENT

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has ordered an immediate emergency redistribution of 2.48 million acre-feet of water across the Colorado River storage system. The order was delivered by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to the governors of seven states. Key elements:

• 1.0 million acre-feet released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir (UT/WY) → Lake Powell. Flaming Gorge elevation drops ~35 feet.
• 1.48 million acre-feet withheld from Lake Mead. Lake Powell rises ~54 feet.
• 40% reduction in hydropower generation at Lake Mead.
• Mandatory, uncompensated water rights reductions across Upper Basin states (UT, CO, WY, NM).
• Discretionary water cuts to Lower Basin states (NV, AZ, CA).
• Underlying trigger: lowest snowpack on record, system at 36% of capacity.

The seven-state Colorado River Compact agreements expire late 2026. Multiple states (notably AZ and UT) have signaled pending litigation. Federal action this week is a stopgap; the underlying allocation framework is unresolved.

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IMPACT ZONES — DISTRESSED INVENTORY FORECAST

County / Market	State	Property Type at Risk	Signal Strength	Inventory Surfaces
Daggett (Manila / Flaming Gorge)	UT	Marinas, lodges, outfitters, RV parks, lakefront SF	9 / 10	Q3-Q4 2026
Coconino (Page / Lake Powell)	AZ	Hotels, restaurants, guide services, vacation rentals	9 / 10	Q2-Q3 2026
Pinal (Casa Grande corridor)	AZ	Agricultural land with impaired water rights	8 / 10	Q3 2026-Q1 2027
Clark (Henderson / Boulder City)	NV	Energy-intensive commercial, industrial tenants	7 / 10	Q4 2026 onward
Mohave (Bullhead / Lake Havasu)	AZ	Lakefront recreation, retirement communities	7 / 10	Q4 2026 onward
La Paz (Parker corridor)	AZ	Agricultural, river-adjacent commercial	7 / 10	Q3-Q4 2026

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THE INVENTORY SIGNATURES TO WATCH

Recreation distress (Daggett UT, Coconino AZ): SBA 7(a) defaults on tourism-dependent businesses are the leading indicator. Marina operators, lodge owners, river-rafting outfitters, and RV-park operators carry SBA debt and operate on thin seasonal margins. A revenue collapse triggers default within two reporting cycles. We expect a sharp uptick in SBA-flagged distress signals beginning July 2026.

Tourism real estate decay (Page AZ): Absentee-owned short-term rentals will see occupancy drop. Owners with carry costs will list before peak season ends. Watch for unusually motivated sellers in zip 86040, particularly properties acquired 2020-2022 at the speculative top.

Agricultural water rights impairment (Pinal AZ, La Paz AZ): Mandatory uncompensated reductions create a tier of farmland that loses irrigation status overnight. Land transitions from irrigated valuations (~$8K-$15K/acre) to dryland valuations (~$1.5K-$3K/acre). For investors with a long-horizon thesis on compact renegotiation, this is a value entry point — but understand the political risk premium.

Commercial energy-cost compression (Clark NV): The 40% hydropower cut translates to electricity rate increases for southern Nevada commercial tenants. Energy-intensive operators (data centers, cold storage, manufacturing, mining) face margin pressure. Vacancy rates and lease defaults are the indicators.

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TIMELINE & DECISION POINTS

Date	Event	Subscriber Action
April 2026	Releases begin from Flaming Gorge	Position broker network in UT/AZ now
Summer 2026	Recreation revenue gap emerges	Monitor SBA default filings, county auction calendars
Late 2026	Colorado River Compact agreements expire	Litigation announcements drive uncertainty discount
Q3-Q4 2026	First wave of distressed inventory listed	Acquisition window opens
Q1-Q2 2027	Bank REO inventory accumulates	Secondary acquisition window

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RECOMMENDED ACTIONS BY SUBSCRIBER TIER

Standard tier — Add the six counties above to your geographic watchlist. Expect targeted inventory alerts in your weekly feed beginning Q3 2026.

Premium tier — Receive named-property alerts as SBA defaults and county auction listings surface in the impact zones. First alerts begin August 2026 based on our SBA collector cycle.

VIP tier — Direct introductions to local broker network in target markets, on request. Custom property-type filtering (recreation/marina vs. agricultural vs. commercial) available now.

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ANALYTICAL CONFIDENCE

HIGH that the federal action will create commercial recreation distress in Daggett County UT and Coconino County AZ within 6-12 months. Historical precedent: the 2021-2022 Lake Powell drawdown produced documented marina closures and business failures in the same corridor.

MEDIUM that agricultural water rights impairment in Pinal County AZ produces a buyable inventory of distressed farmland. The political and legal uncertainty around the compact expiration adds variance to the timeline.

LOWER that Clark County NV commercial impact materializes in tradable inventory within 12 months. Commercial real estate distress lags utility cost increases by 18-24 months.

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_{Source attribution: Federal agency announcements and verified public-record reporting. Underlying data integrated into the Monadnock Cyber market intelligence platform.}

_{Market Intelligence by Monadnock Cyber. This brief is provided to ReFax Pro subscribers for situational awareness and acquisition-planning use. Not investment advice. Subscribers are responsible for independent due diligence on any property or business identified in subsequent inventory alerts.}

Hampton Luxury Is Absorbing: Market Brief, Week of April 16, 2026

Hampton’s Luxury Tier Is Absorbing — Seven of nineteen $1M+ listings went under contract this week.

The Hampton luxury market did not freeze in early spring — it absorbed. As of this morning, of the nineteen unique Hampton, NH listings priced at or above $949,900, seven have gone to contract. That is a roughly thirty-seven percent absorption rate at the top of the market.

465 Ocean Boulevard, Hampton went to contract pending at $1,595,000. It is a 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, 1,920 square foot new construction condominium (built 2025), listed by Alex Loiseau of Harris Real Estate and displayed by Tate & Foss Sotheby’s International Realty (MLS #5043944). The listing describes “Salt Life 465” as an eight-unit oceanfront condominium development with 12x20 front decks offering unobstructed ocean views and private marshland-facing decks off the primary bedrooms.

We flagged this property in our weekly intelligence index. Our four-method automated valuation model estimated the property at approximately $1,807,000 — roughly $212,000 above the listing price. The market did not agree with our model. The property cleared at the $1,595,000 list, and that is the number that matters.

Automated valuation models are estimates built from comparable sales, assessment data, and transaction histories. For new-construction, sub-tier luxury oceanfront condominiums — a category with thin recent comps in Hampton — our model ran hot by a material margin. The market’s clearing price is the better signal. This is the discipline of using an AVM: it is an input, not a verdict, and the pending price is a correction we will roll into next week’s calibration.

A 37 percent absorption rate at luxury tier is not a distressed market. It is the opposite — a market where premium inventory moves at pace. Hampton is 14.5 square miles and has never been a volume market; when seven listings go under contract in a week, the replacement pipeline is not deep. Every Hampton luxury buyer from Massachusetts or Connecticut is running the same tax math, and it still favors New Hampshire in a way that compounds over a decade of ownership.

Every week, the REFax Real Estate Intelligence Service runs the full NH property inventory through a four-method automated valuation model. The output is a weekly digest that identifies listings where our model diverges from the asking price, tracks pending-to-closed velocity by market, and calibrates against market-clearing prices. The digest, the Stutzman Report, publishes every Monday.

The listings featured here are held by the brokerages named in their attribution lines. Monadnock Cyber Real Estate, LLC does not represent any of these specific properties. Buyers who are unrepresented and wish to be advocated for should engage a licensed buyer’s agent. We offer buyer representation through Monadnock Cyber Realty (an eXp Realty affiliate).

Market Insight: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Surges in Q1 2026

Published by: Monadnock Cyber
Source: ATTOM Q1 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report

The U.S. housing market continues its march toward “normalization,” though the latest data suggests that “normal” now includes a significant uptick in financial distress for homeowners. According to the Q1 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today by ATTOM, foreclosure filings have seen a double-digit increase over the past year, signaling a potential shift in market inventory and homeowner stability.

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By the Numbers: Q1 2026 High-Level Trends

The report highlights a steady climb in activity across all stages of the foreclosure process.

• Total Filings: A total of 118,727 U.S. properties saw foreclosure filings (including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions) in the first quarter. This represents a 26% increase compared to the same period last year.
• Foreclosure Starts: Lenders initiated the foreclosure process on 82,631 properties, marking a 20% annual rise.
• Bank Repossessions (REOs): In perhaps the most telling metric of mounting pressure, lenders completed the foreclosure process on 14,020 properties—a staggering 45% increase from Q1 2025.

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Geographic Hotspots and Risk Zones

Foreclosure activity remains highly localized, with several states and metro areas emerging as leaders in distressed activity.

Worst Foreclosure Rates (By State)

Rank	State	Foreclosure Rate (1 in every X units)
1	Indiana	739
2	South Carolina	743
3	Florida	750
4	Delaware	757
5	Illinois	833

Volume Leaders (Foreclosure Starts)

While the rates reflect density, the raw volume remains concentrated in high-population states. Texas led the nation with 10,617 starts, followed closely by Florida (10,099) and California (7,985).

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The “Speed-to-Gravel” Factor: Shrinking Timelines

While activity is rising, the average duration a property remains in the foreclosure “pipeline” is shrinking. Properties foreclosed in Q1 2026 spent an average of 577 days in the process—a 14% decrease from a year ago.

• The Long Game: Louisiana (3,140 days) and Hawaii (2,119 days) remain the slowest states to process foreclosures.
• The Fast Track: Texas (165 days) and West Virginia (178 days) continue to be the most efficient in moving distressed assets through the system.

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Monadnock Cyber Analysis: What This Means for 2026

The 18% jump in activity between February and March 2026 alone suggests that the “spring cleaning” of bank balance sheets is in full effect. As ATTOM CEO Rob Barber noted, while these figures aren’t yet at historical crisis peaks, the consistent rise in repossessions indicates that the “financial pressure is building.”

For real estate professionals and investors, this trend points to a growing segment of the market that requires specialized intervention—whether through cash-offer platforms like ExpressOffers or targeted digital lead generation to help homeowners navigate equity before a full repossession occurs.

Key Takeaway: The “normalization” of the foreclosure market is no longer a forecast; it is a reality. Stakeholders should prepare for a steady increase in distressed inventory through the remainder of 2026.

Rate vs. Reality: Why New Hampshire’s High Property Taxes Aren't Always What They Seem

When you look strictly at the effective tax rate, New Hampshire is objectively one of the most expensive states in the country. However, because NH lacks a state income tax and a general sales tax, the property tax carries almost the entire burden of funding local services.

Here is how the comparison actually shakes out for 2026:

1. The “Effective Rate” Gap

The effective tax rate is the percentage of your home’s market value that you pay in taxes annually. * New Hampshire: Average is 1.29% (6th highest in the U.S.). In some “high-service” towns, this can climb over 2.0%. * Massachusetts: Average is roughly 1.10%. While lower, Massachusetts property values are often significantly higher, which can lead to a similar “dollar amount” on your tax bill.

2. The “Total Tax Burden” Reality

Total tax burden measures how much of your total income goes to the government (Property + Income + Sales + Excise). * New Hampshire: Consistently ranks among the lowest total tax burdens in the U.S. (often under 6% of total income). * Massachusetts: Ranks in the mid-to-high range (often 9%–10% of total income) due to the “triple threat” of property, income, and sales taxes.

3. Case Study: The $600,000 Home

If you own a $600,000 home in both states, here is a rough look at the math:

Tax Type	New Hampshire (e.g., Lyndeborough)	Massachusetts (e.g., Dunstable)
Property Tax	~$7,740 (at 1.29%)	~$6,600 (at 1.10%)
Income Tax	$0 (on wages)	~$4,000 - $6,000+ (5.0% flat)
Sales Tax	$0	6.25% on most goods
Total Est. Paid	$7,740	$10,600 - $12,600+

Why NH Rates Feel Higher

1. Lack of State Aid: NH local governments receive less state aid for schools than almost any other state (under 30% compared to MA’s 42%+). This forces your local property tax to do the heavy lifting for education.
2. Regressive Nature: Because it’s based on property value rather than income, NH property taxes can feel much “higher” to retirees or low-to-middle income earners whose home values have skyrocketed but whose paychecks haven’t.

The Verdict

If you are a high-earner, New Hampshire is almost always “cheaper” because you avoid the 5% MA income tax, which easily outweighs the higher property tax rate. However, if you are retired or on a fixed income, the “sticker shock” of the NH property tax bill can be more painful because you aren’t benefiting from the $0 income tax savings as much as a worker would.