| MONADNOCK CYBER • INTELLIGENCE DIVISION |
MAY 05, 2026 PRIVATE • CONFIDENTIAL ICOD: May 04 2026 00:00 |
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The Stutzman Report
Off-Market Intelligence
Properties that aren’t on the MLS. Auction reserves, withdrawn listings, owner-direct opportunities, and distressed inventory the typical buyer pool never sees — measured against our independent valuation model and flagged underpriced, fairly valued, or overpriced.
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If it’s on the MLS, you don’t need us to find it. Everything below is off-market — properties that won’t show up on Zillow, Redfin, or your agent’s search. We surface them through public-record analysis, distress signal monitoring, and direct off-market intelligence, then run each one through our independent valuation model so you know what it’s actually worth.
Why this matters: Off-market deals trade quieter, with less competition, and almost always close at a different number than a public listing would. The properties below are sitting in those blind spots right now.
Subscribers receive the full file — every address, every owner, every signal. One-off reports cover a single property in detail, and advisory engagements are available for specific decisions. Locations here are shown at city and ZIP so the broader pattern is visible without identifying individual properties.
Want the file? — jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai | (603) 930-2222
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| Information Cut-Off Date |
Monday, May 04, 2026 · 00:00 |
| Every figure in this report — valuations, mispricing, confidence scores, the off-market pool itself — is locked to the moment above. Anything our valuation engine has revised since then is intentionally not reflected here. This is a snapshot, not a live feed. |
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| How We Got Here
Every property below started in a pool of more than a million. Here’s how the funnel narrows from continent-wide to actionable.
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Properties valued (nationwide)
1,030,080
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New Hampshire
20,049
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Through revaluation pipeline
16,725
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Off-market & mispriced this week
9
1 underpriced · 8 overpriced
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| What’s on the Table
Across the 9 off-market properties we surfaced this week, the combined asking total is $8,704,000. Our independent valuation puts the true value at $7,825,057 — an implied $44,771 of mispricing sitting in deals that don’t appear on the MLS, Zillow, or Redfin.
Average asking price: $967,111 · Average AVM: $869,451 · Confidence floor: 70% (most clear 80%+).
The properties span auction reserves, withdrawn listings, owner-direct opportunities, distressed commercial, and capital-gains-pressure sellers. Sources are protected; the value is in the access.
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| Sample — Top 25 by Mispricing A representative slice; the full file lists every off-market property |
| # |
TYPE |
LOCATION |
REFAX
AVM |
ASK |
Ξ |
ANALYTIC
CONFIDENCE |
| 1 |
OVER |
ROCHESTER, NH π |
$949,382 |
$1,100,000 |
+15.9% |
92% |
| 2 |
OVER |
ROCHESTER, NH π |
$949,382 |
$1,100,000 |
+15.9% |
92% |
| 3 |
OVER |
Andover, NH 03216 π |
$410,511 |
$474,000 |
+15.5% |
95% |
| 4 |
UNDER |
Concord, NH 03301 π |
$314,771 |
$270,000 |
−14.2% |
95% |
| 5 |
OVER |
MERRIMACK, NH π |
$989,312 |
$1,100,000 |
+11.2% |
90% |
| 6 |
OVER |
MANCHESTER, NH π |
$1,033,066 |
$1,145,000 |
+10.8% |
84% |
| 7 |
OVER |
MANCHESTER, NH π |
$880,426 |
$975,000 |
+10.7% |
87% |
| 8 |
OVER |
PEMBROKE, NH π |
$1,074,836 |
$1,190,000 |
+10.7% |
91% |
| 9 |
OVER |
MANCHESTER, NH π |
$1,223,371 |
$1,350,000 |
+10.4% |
84% |
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Want the full off-market file?
Every off-market property — all 9 addresses, owners, and signals — delivered to your inbox every Monday before 7 AM.
Single report $39.99 • $149/mo unlimited
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| Distress Signals by Market Active motivated-seller indicators |
| SIGNAL TYPE |
MARKET |
COUNT |
| High Equity Free Clear |
Derry, NH |
170 |
| Senior Owner |
Derry, NH |
152 |
| High Equity Free Clear |
Portsmouth, NH |
104 |
| High Equity |
Derry, NH |
71 |
| Expired Listing |
Amherst, NH |
59 |
| Death |
Laconia, NH |
45 |
| Absentee Owner |
Derry, NH |
40 |
| Senior Owner |
Portsmouth, NH |
40 |
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| HOW WE VALUE PROPERTIES |
The REFAX AVM is an ensemble that runs each property through several established analytic models in parallel and reconciles the outputs into a single estimate. The components include:
- Sales Comparison Approach — matched comparable sales by bedroom count, lot size, age, location, and property characteristics (5-factor model).
- Assessment-Calibrated Equalization — municipal assessed value adjusted by current equalization ratio.
- Equity / Cost Approach — reconstruction cost less depreciation, cross-checked against owner equity history.
- Distress & Income Models — income-cap for multifamily and commercial, distress-discount overlays for auctions and pre-foreclosure inventory.
Every estimate is then independently validated by our Fred & Ethel™ QA system. Fred re-values each property under tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits the underlying data integrity across multiple sources. Disagreements between models trigger analyst review before publication. |
Analytic Confidence reflects model agreement and comp quality: 90%+ strong 75-89% good 60-74% moderate <60% limited GREEN = asking below estimate YELLOW = fairly priced RED = asking above estimate |
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All valuations are independently validated by the Fred & Ethel™ verification system. Fred re-values each property using tight comparable criteria; Ethel audits data integrity across multiple sources. Each property receives a confidence grade (A–F) before publication. This process mitigates errors, data anomalies, and model limitations. Grades reflect analytic rigor, not investment advice.
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Unlock the Full Intelligence Feed
You just saw 10 properties out of 31298 flagged this week. ReFax™ Pro subscribers get:
| ✓ Full street addresses on every property |
| ✓ Owner names, phones & email when available |
| ✓ 4-method AVM breakdown with confidence scores |
| ✓ AI-generated property assessments |
| ✓ Distress signal overlays & motivated seller alerts |
| ✓ Delivered to your inbox Mon & Wed before 7 AM |
Questions? jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222
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Monadnock Cyber, LLC
71 NH 101A Suite 11, Amherst, NH 03031
Jeff Stutzman • jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai • (603) 930-2222 |
This report is prepared exclusively for qualified investors and industry professionals. Information is derived from public records, verified commercial sources, and proprietary intelligence models. Not an offer to sell or solicitation. All data believed reliable but not guaranteed. Unsubscribe • You received this because you are in our intelligence distribution network. |
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