Is June Really the Hottest NH Sales Month? Six Years of Data Says Not Quite.

Every spring the trade press repeats the same line: June is the hottest month for residential real estate sales. Buyer's agents in New England get asked some version of this from clients every week, and most of us nod along because the conventional wisdom is also approximately true at the national level.

It's not that simple in New Hampshire.

We pulled six years of NH closed residential sales from Monadnock Cyber's PropertyFX engine (2020 through 2025) and ran the monthly distribution. June does land in the top tier — but it's not the leader, and it isn't alone up there [1].

What the six-year pattern actually shows

The chart above plots NH closed residential sales by calendar month, summed across the six-year window. Five months sit at or above 46 closings: May (53), June (57), August (53), November (46), and December (59). The single highest month is not June. It's December.

The conventional "June is the hottest sales month" story collapses two things buyers and the press routinely confuse:

• The contract peak happens in spring — March, April, May — when buyers start looking and put homes under contract.
• The closing peak happens roughly 30 to 60 days later, which puts a lot of those contracts into the June column.

That's why "June" gets the credit nationally. But in NH, our data shows a second peak in late fall and early winter — October, November, and December cluster within four closings of June. The pattern isn't one hot summer month. It's a two-peak year.

Why NH looks different

NH's late-year cluster has a couple of plausible drivers — the in-migration pattern from Massachusetts and the Boston metro area runs a different calendar than national first-time-buyer cycles, and tax-positioning closes in November and December bunch up here in a way they don't everywhere. We're not asserting causation from a six-year closed-sales record; we're noting that the seasonal shape of NH sales is materially different from the national "spring market" headline.

What this means for buyer's agents

Three practical reads:

1. Don't telegraph "wait for spring" as if it's the only buying window. NH clients who get pushed past November because the agent is reading the national calendar are missing one of the year's two peak periods. The Dec/Nov/Oct cluster is real.
2. Pricing and competition in the summer cluster (May–August) and the fall cluster (Oct–Dec) move differently. Summer carries first-time-buyer urgency and competing-bid pressure; the late-year cluster skews toward more deliberate buyers and harder negotiating room.
3. July is the soft month, not winter. July (36 closings in the six-year window) is the visible mid-summer dip — buyers and sellers traveling, schools out. If a client wants less competition without going full off-season, July is the under-the-radar slot.

2026 update

Through May 2026, Monadnock Cyber's NH closed-sales record shows the year still ramping into the summer cluster, with full-month numbers consistent with the historical shape [1]. We'll have a clearer read on whether 2026 continues the two-peak pattern when October and November data lands. The conventional wisdom we'd push back on: "June will be the peak." On six years of NH data, that's not what we'd bet on.

Closing

The "spring market" story is a useful shorthand at the national level. In New Hampshire, it's incomplete. Buyer's agents working clients in NH have more than one window per year to surface a deal — and the late-year window is materially under-discussed in the trade press.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence

Questions or want the full Hotsheet read on the city-level distribution: sales@monadnockcyber.ai. The weekly Hotsheet is by-invitation right now while we finish the subscriber rollout — Kathy MacKinnon (kmackinnon@monadnockcyber.ai), licensed across all NH categories, handles the current-edition requests directly.

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Sources

[1] Monadnock Cyber, PropertyFX valuation engine — New Hampshire closed-sales record, calendar years 2020 through 2025. Six-year monthly distribution as plotted: Jan 32, Feb 18, Mar 22, Apr 27, May 53, Jun 57, Jul 36, Aug 53, Sep 42, Oct 47, Nov 46, Dec 59. 2026 partial-year totals through May 2026 referenced in the "2026 update" section above. propertyfx.ai

[2] National Association of REALTORS®, "2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers." Industry-canonical longitudinal survey of U.S. home buyer behavior referenced for the national "spring market" / June-peak conventional wisdom contrasted in this analysis. nar.realtor

Analytic Note

The judgments "NH has a two-peak year rather than a single June peak," "don't telegraph 'wait for spring' to NH buyers," and the plausible-driver discussion of MA in-migration and tax-positioning closes are the author's analytic assessments based on the six-year closed-sales distribution in [1]. The numeric facts in the chart and the source paragraphs above are the empirical record; the per-audience guidance is interpretation. Monthly counts shift as new data ingests; this is a point-in-time read against the 2020–2025 window.

Buyer's Agent: Newrez to borrowers: Let ChatGPT answer mortgage questions

Newrez's ChatGPT Move: A Buyer's Agent Perspective

As buyer's agents, we're always on the lookout for innovative ways to help our clients navigate the complex world of mortgage financing. The recent announcement by Newrez that it will be using a custom ChatGPT tool to answer borrower questions is an interesting development, but what does it really mean for us and our clients? Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Our pipeline data shows that there are currently 1,030,090 AVM valuations indexed across our coverage area, with 60,110 new property signals in the last 7 days alone. That's a lot of activity!

What the Numbers Tell Us

When we drill down into these numbers, we see that certain markets are seeing more dynamic activity than others. For example, Laconia has seen 106 properties listed below our AVM valuation in the top markets, followed closely by Portsmouth with 84 listings. Meanwhile, Concord and Rochester have only a handful of listings below our AVM, while Nashua has just one. So, what does this mean for us as buyer's agents? Here are a few practical implications to consider:

• Market-specific advice: When advising clients on their mortgage options, we need to be aware of the specific market conditions in each area. For example, if a client is looking at properties in Laconia or Portsmouth, we may want to emphasize the importance of working with a lender that has experience with those markets.
• AVM valuations matter: With so many AVM valuations indexed across our coverage area, it's more important than ever to understand how these automated valuations can impact a client's mortgage options. We should be prepared to explain the differences between AVM and traditional appraisals to our clients.
• Client education is key: The rise of ChatGPT and other AI-powered tools means that borrowers are going to have more questions than ever about their mortgage options. As buyer's agents, we need to be prepared to educate our clients on the ins and outs of these new technologies and how they can benefit from them.

What Monadnock Cyber is Watching

As we continue to monitor the market, we're keeping a close eye on a few specific signals that could impact buyer activity. For example, we're seeing a surge in new property listings in the Nashua area, which could indicate a shift in demand or supply. We're also tracking the increasing popularity of certain neighborhoods and communities, which could have implications for pricing and market dynamics.

Conclusion

The Newrez announcement is just one example of how the mortgage landscape is evolving. As buyer's agents, we need to stay ahead of the curve by understanding the latest trends and technologies. By doing so, we can better serve our clients and help them navigate the complex world of real estate.

— Monadnock Cyber · Real Estate Intelligence Team

Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly: propint.monadnockcyber.ai · Order a PIR: propint.monadnockcyber.ai/pir · Questions: sales@monadnockcyber.ai

Selling my Harpers Ferry retreat — 54 Sumac Lane

Selling my Harpers Ferry retreat — 54 Sumac Lane

A personal post, off the usual market-intelligence beat.

I bought 54 Sumac Lane in Harpers Ferry, WV back in 2018 as a getaway from the DC area. Seven good years later, it's time to let someone else enjoy it. Listing it at $550,000. Three bedrooms, two baths, 1,507 square feet, sitting on 1.79 acres across multiple lots in a peaceful cabin-style setting near the Shenandoah River.

The house

• 3 bed / 2 bath, 1,507 sqft, custom-built in 1994
• Cathedral ceilings, soaring ceilings, multiple skylights, wood-burning fireplace
• Open floor plan — main level living/dining/kitchen flow
• Granite countertops, ample cabinetry, full appliance package
• Two bedrooms and a full bath on the main level
• Primary suite upstairs: high ceilings, walk-in closet, en suite bath with laundry, private balcony deck with mountain and water views
• Expansive main deck plus a separate covered outdoor section
• Two-car attached garage, generous driveway parking
• Heat pump, central air, electric water heater
• Wood floors throughout, carpet in select rooms

The land

1.79 acres across multiple parcels — privacy, mature trees, room to breathe. For buyers who want more: an adjacent 2.45-acre riverfront parcel is available for purchase separately. That's direct Shenandoah River access on top of the main lot.

Harpers Ferry — why it matters

• Two rivers: the property sits minutes from the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac. Some of the best paddling and fishing in the mid-Atlantic.
• The Appalachian Trail runs right through downtown Harpers Ferry. The ATC headquarters is in town.
• History: Harpers Ferry National Historical Park is in your backyard — John Brown's raid, the C&O Canal towpath, Maryland Heights overlook.
• DC accessibility: roughly an hour to Northern Virginia / DC. MARC train option from Brunswick.
• Loudoun Valley wineries are 30 minutes east. Canaan Valley and the West Virginia mountains to the west.

Who this is for

DC weekender wanting a real escape with land. Move-up family looking for space, privacy, and access to the AT and the rivers. Work-from-home buyer done with the Beltway. Buyer who wants the option to expand onto the adjacent riverfront acreage.

Contact the listing agent — not me

All inquiries, showings, and offers go through the listing agent. Mary is licensed in MD, WV, and PA — she can handle a cross-state deal end-to-end without a referral handoff.

Mary Llewellyn, Realtor®
The KW Collective
mary@thellewellyngroup.com

Full listing: MLS WVJF2021604

Photos & full details: Redfin · Zillow · Realtor.com

— Jeff Stutzman

The Memorial Day Stampede: "Black Friday" for NH Real Estate — and Where the Value Opportunities Are Actually Hiding

Memorial Day weekend is the Black Friday of New Hampshire real estate. The starter pistol fires Saturday morning and the next six weeks deliver more transactions, more bidding wars, and more above-ask closings than the prior four months combined.

The Lakes open up. The Monadnock trail network fills with hikers and gravel cyclists training in the hills. Vacation-home shoppers who've been "thinking about it" since February turn into Saturday-morning open-house traffic — three families deep at the front door.

And every year, the same thing happens: the loudest, most-promoted listings get picked over first, while the actual value opportunities sit a click outside the popular search radius — invisible to the buyer who's only watching the MLS.

We know because we measure it. Every day. All year.

The stampede, in numbers

As of this afternoon, our property intelligence pipeline shows:

• ~196 properties currently for sale across NH where the asking price is below our AVM (Automated Valuation Model — our cross-checked read on what the property is actually worth, built from comps, ownership patterns, condition signals, and listing history)
• Drawn from 1.03 million indexed valuations and 57,691 new property signals in the last 7 days alone

In plain English: these are 196 NH homes on the market right now where the seller is asking less than the data says the place is worth.

That's a Black Friday markdown — except the storefront is the MLS, the discount is the gap between asking price and our AVM, and the shelf clears out faster than a Best Buy doorbuster. A buyer who offers at or near ask on one of these is walking in with instant equity baked in on day one.

That 196 is the buyer's edge this weekend. Not "thousands of hidden listings." Not a marketing claim. One hundred and ninety-six actual, verifiable, currently-for-sale properties where the data says the asking price is leaving real money on the table.

Where those 196 are hiding

The breakdown is lopsided — and it tells you exactly which roads to drive this weekend:

Region	For sale, below AVM
Laconia / Lakes Region	106
Portsmouth / Seacoast	84
Concord / Capital region	3
Rochester / Strafford County	2
Nashua / Southern tier	1

The Lakes Region is the play. Over half the entire state's below-AVM inventory sits within striking distance of Winnipesaukee, Squam, Newfound, and Sunapee. If you've been chasing the Instagram-famous lakefronts everyone's already bidding on, you're shopping the wrong tier of the market.

The Seacoast is the second loud signal. Portsmouth alone has 84 properties our model flags below-AVM — meaning a buyer who hasn't priced themselves out of the Seacoast yet still has runway.

The Capital, Strafford, and Southern tier regions barely register on the value-opportunity side this weekend. If a buyer says "Concord," our data says: tight market, fight for it.

Why the Monadnock Region keeps coming up in our pipeline

Keene, Peterborough, and the broader Monadnock corridor don't dominate the headline value-opportunity tables this week, but they show up consistently in a category most buyers ignore: stale listings on properties with strong underlying value. Properties that are sitting because nobody's looked — not because the value isn't there.

For buyers who care about access to the trails — Mount Monadnock, the Wapack, the gravel routes that draw cyclists from across New England — that part of the state is structurally underbought relative to the Lakes and Seacoast. The buyer pool is smaller. The inventory isn't worse. Math works in the patient buyer's favor.

What Monadnock Cyber does

We're a competitive intelligence firm. The Real Estate Intelligence team publishes what our property intelligence pipeline sees — valuations, ownership patterns, distress signals, listing history, condition data — across the markets we cover.

We don't list, sell, or facilitate property transactions. We publish the analysis. What buyers do with it is up to them.

That separation is the point. When you read our intelligence, you're getting the pipeline output without a sales-agent layer translating it for you.

If you're shopping this weekend

The MLS is going to show you the same 200 listings everyone else is looking at. Our intelligence pipeline tells you which ones the data actually supports — and which roads in the towns you haven't searched yet are worth the drive.

Two ways to plug in Subscribe to the Hotsheet Weekly  ·  Order a Property Intelligence Report

Don't fight the stampede on the loud listings. Walk in on the quiet ones.

Monadnock Cyber, LLC is a competitive intelligence firm. All numbers above are drawn from Monadnock Cyber's proprietary property intelligence pipeline as of 2026-05-22 and reflect our internal valuation model, not MLS active inventory or any representation about specific properties or transactions. AVM = Automated Valuation Model.

When Gas Is Expensive, Homes Don't Have to Be

When Gas Is Expensive, Homes Don’t Have to Be

The cost of everything is up. Gas at the pump. Eggs. The truck you drive to work. None of that is news.

Here’s something that is: across New Hampshire, 321 active listings are currently Priced Below AVM. 14 of them are in Portsmouth — in a market where the median sale closed at $720,000 over the past year.

A buy with built-in equity isn’t theoretical. It’s a math problem with a known answer.

We run the math on every active off-market listing that we find. Over a million property records evaluated to date. Coverage started in New Hampshire and now extends through Massachusetts, Maryland, DC, and West Virginia. For each property we compute a current market value and compare it to the asking price. When asking comes in below value, we mark it “Priced Below AVM.” That’s not a recommendation, an opinion, or a hot take. It’s the arithmetic difference between two numbers.

Portsmouth by the numbers (rolling 12 months)

• 23 closed sales
• Median sale price: $720,000
• Range: $309,500 to $1.8 million
• 34 active listings on the market today
• 14 active listings Priced Below AVM

What does this mean for a buyer in May 2026?

• You can’t control the price of gas.
• You can’t control mortgage rates.
• You CAN control whether the house you buy already has equity in it the day you close.

Built-in equity at purchase is the one kind that doesn’t depend on the market going your way later. Rates can move. The market can drift. Equity you bought at the closing table doesn’t care.

Most agents don’t run AVMs against active inventory. Most buyers don’t ask. That’s the gap. We close it.

If you’re watching a specific house — or a specific town — pull a REFax™ report. We’ll show you where the asking price sits relative to value, what comparable closings look like, and whether the listing is priced for the market or against it.

Off-market opportunities don’t show up on Zillow. If you want us to look beyond what’s listed, get in touch.

Gas might be expensive. Your next house doesn’t have to be.

— Monadnock Cyber, LLC refax.pro

SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF Colorado River Water Crisis 2026 — Distressed Inventory

SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Colorado River Water Crisis 2026 — Distressed Inventory Forecast

Issued: 2026-04-18 Distribution: ReFax Pro Standard / Premium / VIP subscribers Classification: Open-source intelligence, multi-source verified Reading time: 4 minutes

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A federal emergency water-management order issued this week will create distressed real estate inventory in six counties across four states over the next two to four quarters. This brief identifies the impact zones, the property categories most exposed, and the timeline on which we expect the inventory to surface. Subscribers operating in or sourcing buyers for the western U.S. should adjust acquisition pipelines now, before brokers in the affected markets recognize the pattern.

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THE EVENT

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has ordered an immediate emergency redistribution of 2.48 million acre-feet of water across the Colorado River storage system. The order was delivered by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to the governors of seven states. Key elements:

• 1.0 million acre-feet released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir (UT/WY) → Lake Powell. Flaming Gorge elevation drops ~35 feet.
• 1.48 million acre-feet withheld from Lake Mead. Lake Powell rises ~54 feet.
• 40% reduction in hydropower generation at Lake Mead.
• Mandatory, uncompensated water rights reductions across Upper Basin states (UT, CO, WY, NM).
• Discretionary water cuts to Lower Basin states (NV, AZ, CA).
• Underlying trigger: lowest snowpack on record, system at 36% of capacity.

The seven-state Colorado River Compact agreements expire late 2026. Multiple states (notably AZ and UT) have signaled pending litigation. Federal action this week is a stopgap; the underlying allocation framework is unresolved.

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IMPACT ZONES — DISTRESSED INVENTORY FORECAST

County / Market	State	Property Type at Risk	Signal Strength	Inventory Surfaces
Daggett (Manila / Flaming Gorge)	UT	Marinas, lodges, outfitters, RV parks, lakefront SF	9 / 10	Q3-Q4 2026
Coconino (Page / Lake Powell)	AZ	Hotels, restaurants, guide services, vacation rentals	9 / 10	Q2-Q3 2026
Pinal (Casa Grande corridor)	AZ	Agricultural land with impaired water rights	8 / 10	Q3 2026-Q1 2027
Clark (Henderson / Boulder City)	NV	Energy-intensive commercial, industrial tenants	7 / 10	Q4 2026 onward
Mohave (Bullhead / Lake Havasu)	AZ	Lakefront recreation, retirement communities	7 / 10	Q4 2026 onward
La Paz (Parker corridor)	AZ	Agricultural, river-adjacent commercial	7 / 10	Q3-Q4 2026

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THE INVENTORY SIGNATURES TO WATCH

Recreation distress (Daggett UT, Coconino AZ): SBA 7(a) defaults on tourism-dependent businesses are the leading indicator. Marina operators, lodge owners, river-rafting outfitters, and RV-park operators carry SBA debt and operate on thin seasonal margins. A revenue collapse triggers default within two reporting cycles. We expect a sharp uptick in SBA-flagged distress signals beginning July 2026.

Tourism real estate decay (Page AZ): Absentee-owned short-term rentals will see occupancy drop. Owners with carry costs will list before peak season ends. Watch for unusually motivated sellers in zip 86040, particularly properties acquired 2020-2022 at the speculative top.

Agricultural water rights impairment (Pinal AZ, La Paz AZ): Mandatory uncompensated reductions create a tier of farmland that loses irrigation status overnight. Land transitions from irrigated valuations (~$8K-$15K/acre) to dryland valuations (~$1.5K-$3K/acre). For investors with a long-horizon thesis on compact renegotiation, this is a value entry point — but understand the political risk premium.

Commercial energy-cost compression (Clark NV): The 40% hydropower cut translates to electricity rate increases for southern Nevada commercial tenants. Energy-intensive operators (data centers, cold storage, manufacturing, mining) face margin pressure. Vacancy rates and lease defaults are the indicators.

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TIMELINE & DECISION POINTS

Date	Event	Subscriber Action
April 2026	Releases begin from Flaming Gorge	Position broker network in UT/AZ now
Summer 2026	Recreation revenue gap emerges	Monitor SBA default filings, county auction calendars
Late 2026	Colorado River Compact agreements expire	Litigation announcements drive uncertainty discount
Q3-Q4 2026	First wave of distressed inventory listed	Acquisition window opens
Q1-Q2 2027	Bank REO inventory accumulates	Secondary acquisition window

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RECOMMENDED ACTIONS BY SUBSCRIBER TIER

Standard tier — Add the six counties above to your geographic watchlist. Expect targeted inventory alerts in your weekly feed beginning Q3 2026.

Premium tier — Receive named-property alerts as SBA defaults and county auction listings surface in the impact zones. First alerts begin August 2026 based on our SBA collector cycle.

VIP tier — Direct introductions to local broker network in target markets, on request. Custom property-type filtering (recreation/marina vs. agricultural vs. commercial) available now.

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ANALYTICAL CONFIDENCE

HIGH that the federal action will create commercial recreation distress in Daggett County UT and Coconino County AZ within 6-12 months. Historical precedent: the 2021-2022 Lake Powell drawdown produced documented marina closures and business failures in the same corridor.

MEDIUM that agricultural water rights impairment in Pinal County AZ produces a buyable inventory of distressed farmland. The political and legal uncertainty around the compact expiration adds variance to the timeline.

LOWER that Clark County NV commercial impact materializes in tradable inventory within 12 months. Commercial real estate distress lags utility cost increases by 18-24 months.

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_{Source attribution: Federal agency announcements and verified public-record reporting. Underlying data integrated into the Monadnock Cyber market intelligence platform.}

_{Market Intelligence by Monadnock Cyber. This brief is provided to ReFax Pro subscribers for situational awareness and acquisition-planning use. Not investment advice. Subscribers are responsible for independent due diligence on any property or business identified in subsequent inventory alerts.}

Hampton Luxury Is Absorbing: Market Brief, Week of April 16, 2026

Hampton’s Luxury Tier Is Absorbing — Seven of nineteen $1M+ listings went under contract this week.

The Hampton luxury market did not freeze in early spring — it absorbed. As of this morning, of the nineteen unique Hampton, NH listings priced at or above $949,900, seven have gone to contract. That is a roughly thirty-seven percent absorption rate at the top of the market.

465 Ocean Boulevard, Hampton went to contract pending at $1,595,000. It is a 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, 1,920 square foot new construction condominium (built 2025), listed by Alex Loiseau of Harris Real Estate and displayed by Tate & Foss Sotheby’s International Realty (MLS #5043944). The listing describes “Salt Life 465” as an eight-unit oceanfront condominium development with 12x20 front decks offering unobstructed ocean views and private marshland-facing decks off the primary bedrooms.

We flagged this property in our weekly intelligence index. Our four-method automated valuation model estimated the property at approximately $1,807,000 — roughly $212,000 above the listing price. The market did not agree with our model. The property cleared at the $1,595,000 list, and that is the number that matters.

Automated valuation models are estimates built from comparable sales, assessment data, and transaction histories. For new-construction, sub-tier luxury oceanfront condominiums — a category with thin recent comps in Hampton — our model ran hot by a material margin. The market’s clearing price is the better signal. This is the discipline of using an AVM: it is an input, not a verdict, and the pending price is a correction we will roll into next week’s calibration.

A 37 percent absorption rate at luxury tier is not a distressed market. It is the opposite — a market where premium inventory moves at pace. Hampton is 14.5 square miles and has never been a volume market; when seven listings go under contract in a week, the replacement pipeline is not deep. Every Hampton luxury buyer from Massachusetts or Connecticut is running the same tax math, and it still favors New Hampshire in a way that compounds over a decade of ownership.

Every week, the REFax Real Estate Intelligence Service runs the full NH property inventory through a four-method automated valuation model. The output is a weekly digest that identifies listings where our model diverges from the asking price, tracks pending-to-closed velocity by market, and calibrates against market-clearing prices. The digest, the Stutzman Report, publishes every Monday.

The listings featured here are held by the brokerages named in their attribution lines. Monadnock Cyber Real Estate, LLC does not represent any of these specific properties. Buyers who are unrepresented and wish to be advocated for should engage a licensed buyer’s agent. We offer buyer representation through Monadnock Cyber Realty (an eXp Realty affiliate).

Market Insight: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Surges in Q1 2026

Published by: Monadnock Cyber
Source: ATTOM Q1 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report

The U.S. housing market continues its march toward “normalization,” though the latest data suggests that “normal” now includes a significant uptick in financial distress for homeowners. According to the Q1 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today by ATTOM, foreclosure filings have seen a double-digit increase over the past year, signaling a potential shift in market inventory and homeowner stability.

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By the Numbers: Q1 2026 High-Level Trends

The report highlights a steady climb in activity across all stages of the foreclosure process.

• Total Filings: A total of 118,727 U.S. properties saw foreclosure filings (including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions) in the first quarter. This represents a 26% increase compared to the same period last year.
• Foreclosure Starts: Lenders initiated the foreclosure process on 82,631 properties, marking a 20% annual rise.
• Bank Repossessions (REOs): In perhaps the most telling metric of mounting pressure, lenders completed the foreclosure process on 14,020 properties—a staggering 45% increase from Q1 2025.

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Geographic Hotspots and Risk Zones

Foreclosure activity remains highly localized, with several states and metro areas emerging as leaders in distressed activity.

Worst Foreclosure Rates (By State)

Rank	State	Foreclosure Rate (1 in every X units)
1	Indiana	739
2	South Carolina	743
3	Florida	750
4	Delaware	757
5	Illinois	833

Volume Leaders (Foreclosure Starts)

While the rates reflect density, the raw volume remains concentrated in high-population states. Texas led the nation with 10,617 starts, followed closely by Florida (10,099) and California (7,985).

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The “Speed-to-Gravel” Factor: Shrinking Timelines

While activity is rising, the average duration a property remains in the foreclosure “pipeline” is shrinking. Properties foreclosed in Q1 2026 spent an average of 577 days in the process—a 14% decrease from a year ago.

• The Long Game: Louisiana (3,140 days) and Hawaii (2,119 days) remain the slowest states to process foreclosures.
• The Fast Track: Texas (165 days) and West Virginia (178 days) continue to be the most efficient in moving distressed assets through the system.

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Monadnock Cyber Analysis: What This Means for 2026

The 18% jump in activity between February and March 2026 alone suggests that the “spring cleaning” of bank balance sheets is in full effect. As ATTOM CEO Rob Barber noted, while these figures aren’t yet at historical crisis peaks, the consistent rise in repossessions indicates that the “financial pressure is building.”

For real estate professionals and investors, this trend points to a growing segment of the market that requires specialized intervention—whether through cash-offer platforms like ExpressOffers or targeted digital lead generation to help homeowners navigate equity before a full repossession occurs.

Key Takeaway: The “normalization” of the foreclosure market is no longer a forecast; it is a reality. Stakeholders should prepare for a steady increase in distressed inventory through the remainder of 2026.

Rate vs. Reality: Why New Hampshire’s High Property Taxes Aren't Always What They Seem

When you look strictly at the effective tax rate, New Hampshire is objectively one of the most expensive states in the country. However, because NH lacks a state income tax and a general sales tax, the property tax carries almost the entire burden of funding local services.

Here is how the comparison actually shakes out for 2026:

1. The “Effective Rate” Gap

The effective tax rate is the percentage of your home’s market value that you pay in taxes annually. * New Hampshire: Average is 1.29% (6th highest in the U.S.). In some “high-service” towns, this can climb over 2.0%. * Massachusetts: Average is roughly 1.10%. While lower, Massachusetts property values are often significantly higher, which can lead to a similar “dollar amount” on your tax bill.

2. The “Total Tax Burden” Reality

Total tax burden measures how much of your total income goes to the government (Property + Income + Sales + Excise). * New Hampshire: Consistently ranks among the lowest total tax burdens in the U.S. (often under 6% of total income). * Massachusetts: Ranks in the mid-to-high range (often 9%–10% of total income) due to the “triple threat” of property, income, and sales taxes.

3. Case Study: The $600,000 Home

If you own a $600,000 home in both states, here is a rough look at the math:

Tax Type	New Hampshire (e.g., Lyndeborough)	Massachusetts (e.g., Dunstable)
Property Tax	~$7,740 (at 1.29%)	~$6,600 (at 1.10%)
Income Tax	$0 (on wages)	~$4,000 - $6,000+ (5.0% flat)
Sales Tax	$0	6.25% on most goods
Total Est. Paid	$7,740	$10,600 - $12,600+

Why NH Rates Feel Higher

1. Lack of State Aid: NH local governments receive less state aid for schools than almost any other state (under 30% compared to MA’s 42%+). This forces your local property tax to do the heavy lifting for education.
2. Regressive Nature: Because it’s based on property value rather than income, NH property taxes can feel much “higher” to retirees or low-to-middle income earners whose home values have skyrocketed but whose paychecks haven’t.

The Verdict

If you are a high-earner, New Hampshire is almost always “cheaper” because you avoid the 5% MA income tax, which easily outweighs the higher property tax rate. However, if you are retired or on a fixed income, the “sticker shock” of the NH property tax bill can be more painful because you aren’t benefiting from the $0 income tax savings as much as a worker would.

What the MLS Listing Doesn't Tell You: A Southern New Hampshire Case Study

Disclaimer. REFax™ is an automated property-intelligence and valuation analytics product. It is not an appraisal under USPAP and is not a substitute for a licensed appraiser, attorney, or tax advisor. Monadnock Cyber, LLC does not provide real estate brokerage, legal, tax, or appraisal services. The figures in this post are illustrative buyer education drawn from public records and our internal analytics; specific identifying details about the subject property, the seller, the listing brokerage, and prior tenants have been removed.

What the listing says

Last week a small downtown southern New Hampshire commercial property hit the market at $450,000. Two stories, mixed-use. Restaurant on the ground floor with a small apartment upstairs. The kind of building that looks like a “set-it-and-forget-it” income property — buy it, collect rent, sleep at night.

A buyer who only read the listing might see a recognizable restaurant brand, a downtown location, and a fair-looking asking price for a 2,800 sf mixed-use building. They might call the listing agent, schedule a walk-through, and start working on financing.

That buyer would be walking into a deal that does not work at any realistic financing terms, and they wouldn’t know it until the bank told them at the appraisal.

This is the gap REFax™ was built to close.

Five questions the listing won’t answer

Before we get to numbers, here are the five questions a serious buyer should be asking on any small downtown commercial property. None of them are answered by the MLS sheet, by Zillow, or by a 30-minute walk-through with the seller’s representative standing next to them:

1. Does the kitchen meet current code, or does a new concept trigger expensive hood, fire suppression, grease trap, or electrical upgrades?
2. Is the rent the most recent operator was paying realistic for the foot traffic this address actually generates?
3. Has anything changed in the surrounding block that pulled traffic away from breakfast/lunch positioning — a closure, a competitor opening, a parking change, a one-way street conversion?
4. Are there code or ADA exposures that would carry over to a new tenant under a change-of-use permit?
5. What did the most recent operator know in their last six months that isn’t in any public document?

A buyer who doesn’t ask these will pay full price for problems the next operator already discovered.

What two hours of public-records work surfaced

Here is what showed up when we ran our standard REFax™ commercial intelligence pull on this property.

Short hold, large markup

The seller acquired the building in June 2025 for $270,000. They listed it nine months later at $450,000 — a 67% markup, with no building permits or assessor improvements recorded in town records during the holding period. That alone isn’t proof of anything, but it is a question every buyer should be asking out loud: what changed in nine months that justifies a 67% revaluation?

The town’s own records don’t support the asking price

The 2025 town assessment is $249,500. Our REFax™ four-model commercial AVM, which combines income capitalization, comparable sales, cost approach, and gross rent multiplier, returned a value range of $298,000–$302,000. Two independent reference points — town assessor and a four-model AVM — converged in the high $200K range.

The asking price is $150,000 above the highest data-supported value either source produced.

The “established tenant” story needs scrutiny

The listing implies — without quite saying — that the building comes with a stable, established restaurant tenant. The reality, which a buyer would have to dig out of secondhand local knowledge: the ground floor is currently vacant. The brand the listing photographs imply is no longer operating at this address. This is the kind of fact that changes the entire underwriting model and is exactly the kind of fact that does not appear in MLS data, in Zillow, or in Redfin.

The math once you have the facts

Once you know the ground floor is vacant, the income approach to valuation produces a negative number. The apartment, even at full occupancy, doesn’t cover the building’s carrying costs (property tax, insurance, heat to keep the vacant restaurant from freezing in winter, water/sewer, management). Whoever holds it is losing money every month.

That changes the underwriting from “what cap rate makes this a good buy” to “what discount to vacant-condition value justifies the optionality of fixing it later.”

The data-supported value range for this property — what the AVM, the income model, and the assessor all converge on — sits between $195,000 and $245,000 in current condition. The asking price is roughly double the floor of that range. None of those numbers are an appraisal, and none of them are advice to bid; they are buyer education so the reader can see the size of the gap.

What the listing agent’s job is, and what it isn’t

The listing agent works for the seller. That is their job. Their fiduciary duty runs to the seller. They are paid to present the property in the best light, attract the highest offer, and close the deal. None of that is nefarious. It is the entire point of the listing-agent role under standard real estate brokerage law.

What the listing agent is not paid to do is tell a prospective buyer:

• That the seller acquired the building nine months ago for 60% less than the asking
• That the income side of the model in current state is zero
• That a four-model AVM independent of the listing produces a value 33% below asking
• That the property is unbankable at the asking price under any reasonable financing terms

A buyer who walks into a commercial deal with no independent intelligence is bringing a slingshot to a tank fight. The seller knows everything. The listing agent knows almost everything. The buyer knows what’s on the listing sheet and what they can read from a 30-minute walk-through.

That asymmetry is the entire reason independent intelligence exists.

What a REFax™ report contains

For every commercial property we touch, our standard pull includes:

1. Full assessor card — every field, every sub-area, every line of the valuation history, every owner of record back to the 1980s
2. Title chain reconstruction — every recorded deed, sale price, and instrument type, from the most recent transfer back to the 1980s
3. REFax™ four-model AVM — income cap, comp PSF, cost approach, and gross rent multiplier, combined into a single confidence-rated value with a range and a color signal
4. Distress signal feed — a continuously-updated WSPRS layer that flags foreclosure activity, expired listings, code violations, lien filings, SBA defaults, and other indicators of seller motivation that don’t show up in MLS data
5. Tenant-continuity research — for income properties, the public record of who has operated the business, for how long, and the current operating status
6. Sub-area analysis — for every commercial parcel, an itemized breakdown of finished vs. unfinished space, hidden equity, and under-assessed improvements (we have flagged a meaningful share of parcels in some New England towns as carrying significant finished area at zero living-area value)
7. Buy-side and list-side reference ranges, supported by a full cap-rate matrix and DSCR sensitivity analysis at multiple LTV scenarios — for buyer education only, not as an appraisal opinion and not as a recommendation to transact

None of this is exotic. It is what every institutional commercial acquirer does on every deal as a matter of standard practice. The only unusual thing about REFax™ is that we do it for small downtown New England commercial buildings under $1M — a price band that institutional buyers typically ignore and that local market data tools typically under-serve.

How to use this

Demand a REFax™ report on any commercial property you’re seriously considering. If you’re working with a buyer’s agent, ask whether they pull this kind of data on every deal — and if not, ask them to pull a REFax™ report on yours. A single-property report is $39.99. Unlimited access for active buyers is $149/month at refax.pro/subscribe.

The bottom line

The property in this case study will probably end up trading somewhere in the low-to-mid $200s. The seller will take a loss on their nine-month hold. A buyer who pays anything north of $245,000 for it without doing the work we did is overpaying by a margin that exceeds the cost of every REFax™ subscription tier we offer for the next decade.

That math isn’t unique to this property. We see the same pattern on every other small-commercial deal we touch. The information asymmetry between the listing side and the uninformed buy side is the single biggest drag on small-commercial returns in this market. Closing that gap is what REFax™ does.

If you are looking at a commercial property in southern New Hampshire and want to know what the listing isn’t telling you, pull a REFax™ report before you sign anything.

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Jeffery Stutzman Monadnock Cyber, LLC — REFax™ / refax.pro jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai refax.pro/subscribe

Monadnock Cyber, LLC is a property-intelligence and analytics company. It is not a real estate brokerage and does not offer brokerage, legal, tax, or appraisal services. REFax™ outputs are decision-support analytics for buyer education only and are not an appraisal under USPAP.

887,217 Properties. Here's What Stands Out.

887,217 Properties. Here's What Stands Out.

This week's scan covered 887,217 properties across New Hampshire. 3,041 came back undervalued. 14,410 overpriced. Confidence: 88%.

The opportunities worth watching:

• Hudson (Shadowbrook Drive) — AVM: $500K vs $435K asking. 95% confidence. Four methods agree.
• Goffstown (Libbey Street) — AVM: $428K vs $372K asking. 95% confidence.
• Barnstead (North Road) — $345K AVM vs $300K asking. 95% confidence.
• Merrimack (Maple Ridge) — $419K vs $365K asking. 95% confidence.

On the overpriced side: 14,410 properties where the data says the asking price doesn't hold up. If you're a buyer, that's negotiation leverage. If you're a seller wondering why the phone isn't ringing — the answer might be here.

The full Stutzman Report — every address, every signal — goes to subscribers every Monday. Get full access →

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Jeff Stutzman is a former intelligence officer and the founder of Monadnock Cyber. REFax™ gives buyers, sellers, and agents the information advantage.

Know More. Move Faster. — Monadnock Cyber, LLC

Saturday Brief — How to Kill a $2M Company in Four Characters

☕ SATURDAY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

The Weekly "How Did That Even Happen?" File

HOW TO KILL A $2 MILLION COMPANY IN FOUR CHARACTERS

admin/admin.

That's it. That's the whole security strategy. A manufacturing firm — profitable, 30 employees, two good decades — got ransomwared last fall because their network storage device was still running the credentials that shipped in the box. Not a sophisticated zero-day. Not a nation-state actor. A bot. Scanning the internet. Looking for exactly this level of ambition.

The attackers encrypted everything in eleven minutes.

Backups? Same network. Of course. Why would you put backups somewhere inconvenient? That would require planning, and planning would require admitting you're a target, and admitting you're a target would require spending money, and spending money would require a conversation with the owner, and the owner was busy. For five years.

Cyber insurance? They'd dropped the rider to save $4,200 a year. Annual savings: $4,200. Annual consequences: $340,000 in recovery costs they couldn't afford, 30 people without jobs, and a building that's now listed with a business broker instead of an IT firm.

For context: $4,200 is roughly what this company spent on break room coffee. They valued Keurig pods more than data security. The attackers valued their data at $340,000. Someone miscalculated.

THE PART THAT SHOULD MAKE YOU UNCOMFORTABLE:

This isn't rare. This is the median outcome.

88% of SMB breaches last year involved ransomware. 65% of SMBs don't use multi-factor authentication — the thing that takes 45 seconds to set up and blocks 99.9% of automated attacks. Only 11% use any AI-powered defense. The average SMB has better protection on their Instagram account than their production database.

The attackers aren't talented. They're just patient. And they start every scan with admin/admin, because it works more often than it should.

IF YOU SELL CYBERSECURITY: This story isn't a scare tactic. It's a Tuesday. You have prospects right now running default credentials on internet-facing devices. We can tell you which ones.

IF YOU BROKER BUSINESSES: The next deal you value, ask one question — "who manages your network credentials?" If the answer is a shrug, discount accordingly.

IF YOU BUY BUSINESSES: "Has this company had a security audit in the last two years?" is the new "are the books clean?" If they can't answer both, walk.

Have a good weekend. For the love of everything, change your passwords.

— Monadnock Cyber | Intelligence & Analysis

monadnockcyber.ai

#SaturdayBrief #CyberIntelligence #DontBeThisCompany

Saturday Intelligence Brief: How a $2M Business Died Because Nobody Changed the Default Password

☕ SATURDAY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

The Weekly "How Did That Even Happen?" File

HOW A $2M BUSINESS DIED BECAUSE NOBODY CHANGED THE DEFAULT PASSWORD

A manufacturing firm in the Northeast — profitable, 30 employees, two decades in business — got hit with ransomware last fall. The entry point? Their network-attached storage device still had the factory login: admin/admin.

Not admin/P@ssw0rd123. Not admin/companyname2024. Just admin/admin. The same credentials printed on page 3 of the setup guide that nobody read in 2019.

The attackers encrypted everything. Backups? On the same network. Insurance? They'd let the cyber rider lapse to save $4,200 a year. Recovery estimate? $340,000. The owner looked at the numbers, looked at the building, and called a business broker instead of an IT firm.

Thirty employees found out on a Monday.

LESSON FOR THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY

Every business that fails this way had the same three things in common — they knew they should update their security, they planned to do it "next quarter," and they assumed they were too small to be a target.

They weren't too small. They were too easy.

88% of SMB breaches last year involved ransomware. 65% of SMBs still don't use multi-factor authentication. The attackers aren't sophisticated — they're just persistent, and they start with the default credentials.

If you sell cybersecurity services: this story is your opening line.
If you sell businesses: this is why you check the cyber liability exposure before you set the asking price.
If you buy businesses: this is the due diligence question nobody asks until it's the only question that matters.

"When was the last time someone audited your network credentials?"

If the answer involves a pause longer than three seconds, you have your next conversation.

Have a good weekend. Change your passwords.

— Monadnock Cyber | Intelligence & Analysis
monadnockcyber.ai

Property Intelligence Brief — You Don't Need a Data Science Team. You Need a REFax.

REFaxProperty Intelligence Reports — refax.pro

Intelligence Brief — March 2026

You Don't Need a Data Science Team.
You Need a REFax.

The industry keeps publishing deep dives on how to integrate MLS, AVM, and parcel data. Nobody's asking the obvious question: why is this still the buyer's problem?

By Jeff Stutzman — Founder, REFax5 min readReal Estate Intelligence

The Warren Group recently published a thoughtful piece on how proptech platforms can integrate MLS, AVM, and land parcel data to produce better property intelligence. It's technically sound. It's also a recipe for a six-figure engineering project. REFax did that work already.

Let's give credit where it's due. The Warren Group knows real estate data. Their breakdown of how Automated Valuation Models, active listing feeds, and parcel boundary data each contribute a different lens to property analysis is accurate and well-explained. AVM data models the math. MLS data delivers the market pulse. Parcel data anchors everything in geography and legal reality. Combine them intelligently, and you get something that actually resembles truth.

But here's what the enterprise proptech conversation consistently misses: most real estate decisions aren't made by data scientists at mortgage portfolio firms. They're made by buyers sitting at kitchen tables at 11pm, by agents trying to answer hard questions on the spot, by investors who need a clear-eyed read on a property before the listing goes cold. These people don't have an API integration budget. They don't have a data normalization pipeline. They have a question and a deadline.

The data integration problem is real. REFax solved it on behalf of everyone who doesn't have a team to solve it themselves.

What "integration" actually requires

The Warren Group is right that combining these datasets isn't trivial. Here's what's actually involved when you try to build it from scratch:

The proptech data stack — raw ingredients

AVM DataStatistical model estimates against historical sales records, assessor data, and market indicators. Useful but confidence intervals vary wildly by market density. Thin rural markets produce wide error bands.

MLS DataActive, pending, and sold listing details including agent notes, days-on-market, price history, and photos. Requires IDX/RETS/RESO Web API access — gated by board membership and licensing agreements.

Parcel DataGIS-anchored legal boundaries, lot dimensions, zoning classification, and assessor tax records. Format varies by county. Normalization is a recurring engineering problem.

Deed & MortgageOwnership chain, lien history, and transaction records. Critical for understanding encumbrances, equity position, and distress signals.

Permit HistoryBuilding permits signal improvement activity, unpermitted work risk, and contractor history. Sourced from municipal records with inconsistent digitization across jurisdictions.

Now stitch all of that together, normalize it, deduplicate it across sources that use different address formats, and present it in a way a non-data-scientist can act on. That's the problem the Warren Group is describing. That's the problem REFax solved.

REFax is the assembled report, not the raw data

REFax is a property intelligence report platform. When you run a report on a property at refax.pro, you're not getting a data dump. You're getting a structured intelligence product — the kind of synthesized, source-attributed analysis that used to require a team of analysts or a six-figure proptech subscription.

The data integration that the Warren Group describes as a technical challenge? That's the foundation of every REFax report. MLS activity, AVM estimates with confidence context, parcel and assessor data, ownership history, lien records — integrated, normalized, and presented in plain language with the sourcing transparent.

The difference between REFax and raw data access isn't just convenience. It's interpretation. A parcel record that shows a property is zoned R-3 is a data point. A REFax that explains what that means for a buyer considering an ADU addition — and flags the relevant permit history — is intelligence. Data tells you what. REFax tells you what it means.

Data tells you what. REFax tells you what it means.

Who this is actually for

The enterprise proptech stack the Warren Group describes has its place. Portfolio managers, institutional lenders, and insurance underwriters need bulk data pipelines, API access, and batch valuation capability. REFax is not competing with that. REFax competes with the yellow legal pad and the thirty-minute Zillow deep-dive that passes for due diligence in most residential transactions.

Real estate agents use REFax to walk into listing appointments with something no competitor has: a fully sourced property intelligence brief they can hand the seller. It's not a CMA. It's not a Zestimate printout. It's an analyst-grade report that demonstrates competence before the conversation starts.

Buyers use REFax to make decisions they can actually justify — to their spouse, their lender, their own risk tolerance. When you're about to commit to the largest purchase of your life, "I looked at Zillow and it seemed fine" is not a foundation. A REFax is.

Investors use REFax to move faster. The property data integration problem is a time problem. Every hour spent assembling your own AVM cross-reference and parcel analysis is an hour the deal can die. REFax compresses that timeline to minutes.

The honest assessment

The Warren Group article is aimed at engineering teams building proptech platforms. That's a legitimate market. But the real estate transaction — the actual human decision about whether to buy a specific house — happens below that layer, in conversations that are rarely informed by good data.

REFax is the answer to that gap. Not a better data API. Not a smarter AVM. A finished intelligence product that makes the data useful at the moment the decision is being made.

The integration problem is real. We just solved it on behalf of the people who can't.

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Run your first REFax report.

Property intelligence on any address — assembled, sourced, and ready in minutes. No data science required.

Get a REFax →

REFax™ is a registered trademark of Monadnock Cyber LLC. — refax.pro

This post was written in response to "How to Integrate MLS, AVM, and Land Parcel Data in Your PropTech Platform" — The Warren Group, March 2026.

Zillow Preview Just Launched. Here's Why eXp Agents Are Already Ahead.

Zillow Preview Just Launched. Here's Why eXp Agents Are Already Ahead. 
March 17, 2026 | Jeff Stutzman, Monadnock Cyber Realty | eXp Realty NH

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Today, Zillow announced Zillow Preview — a pre-market listing phase that lets agents display upcoming homes on Zillow and Trulia before they hit the MLS. Keller Williams, RE/MAX, HomeServices of America, United Real Estate, and Side signed on as founding partners.

This is a big move. And it's worth understanding what it means — and what it doesn't mean — for those of us at eXp.

What Zillow Preview Does

• Agents at participating brokerages can post "Preview Listings" before MLS entry
• Buyers see these listings with special placement and labeling
• Buyers can save, share, and pre-schedule tours for go-live day
• Free leads go directly to the listing agent (no Zillow lead fee)
• If a Preview lead closes with a different Zillow partner agent, the listing agent gets a 10% referral from the buyer side

What This Really Is

Zillow Preview is a billboard. It gives agents a place to display a listing early. That's valuable — 230 million monthly visitors is no joke.

But a billboard only works if you already have the listing.

The harder question — the one Zillow Preview doesn't answer — is: How do you find the seller in the first place?

What We're Building at Monadnock Cyber

While the big brokerages are figuring out where to display listings, we've been building the system that identifies sellers before they know they're selling.

Our platform scans 92 independent sources nationwide every morning — public records, government registries, verified commercial data, and proprietary market models — and runs them through an AI-driven analysis engine. The output:

• 828,000+ properties valued across a 4-method automated valuation model
• Underpriced and overpriced properties flagged daily — GREEN (opportunity), RED (overpriced), YELLOW (fair value)
• Distress signals detected automatically — tax liens, probate, divorce, relocation, code violations, estate sales
• Owner contact enrichment — verified through government registry data and enhanced contact verification
• DNC compliance built in — every phone checked against federal Do Not Call before any outreach

This isn't a listing tool. It's an intelligence platform. By the time a property shows up on Zillow Preview, we've already identified the owner, assessed the property's true value against multiple independent methods, and — in many cases — started the conversation.

The eXp Advantage

eXp wasn't named as a founding partner for Zillow Preview. Some agents may see that as a disadvantage. I see it differently.

We don't need Zillow to find our deals. We find them ourselves — earlier, with more data, and with full context on the owner's situation. If the listing eventually goes on Zillow Preview through a partner brokerage? Fine. But our agents already had the intelligence weeks before it got there.

The real competition in real estate isn't about who has the best billboard. It's about who has the best radar.

What This Means For You

If you're an eXp agent and you want access to:

• The Stutzman Report — Monday morning intelligence briefing covering the top underpriced and overpriced properties in your market
• Pre-market seller identification — distress signals, propensity scoring, and owner profiles before the property ever hits MLS
• Verified owner contact data — DNC-compliant, multi-source validated
• AI-driven market analysis — automated valuation on 828K+ properties across multiple states

Reach out. We're building this for eXp agents who want to operate with better intelligence than anyone else in their market.

Jeff Stutzman Monadnock Cyber, LLC | eXp Realty jstutzman@monadnockcyber.ai | (603) 930-2222 https://refax.pro

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Monadnock Cyber is a real estate intelligence operation built on automated collection, AI-driven analysis, and multi-source validation. We don't scrape. We don't guess. We verify. Information is derived from public records, verified commercial sources, and proprietary intelligence models.

Stop Overpaying for Real Estate. We're Watching.

Stop Overpaying for Real Estate. We're Watching.

By Jeff Stutzman | Monadnock Cyber Intelligence | February 2026

You just paid $1.75 million for a house in XXXXXX, Connecticut.

Congratulations. It's worth $1.22 million.

You overpaid by 43.5%. That's $530,000 you lit on fire because your agent "felt good about the comps" and your lender rubber-stamped a number that made their commission work.

Nobody told you. Nobody was looking. Nobody cared — because everyone in that transaction got paid whether you got a fair deal or not.

We care. And we're looking at everything.

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We Built the Machine That Catches This

At Monadnock Cyber, we don't sell houses. We sell intelligence.

While the rest of the real estate industry is still pulling comps from a 3-ring binder and calling it "market analysis," we built an automated valuation system that cross-references four independent pricing methodologies on every property we track:

• Method A — MLS comparable sales analysis (what similar properties actually sold for)
• Method B — Municipal assessment data, adjusted by state equalization ratios (what the town thinks it's worth, corrected for political math)
• Method C — Skip trace equity modeling (what the financial footprint says)
• Method D — Transfer price indexing (what the deed actually recorded)

When those four numbers agree, we have high confidence. When they don't, someone's getting taken for a ride.

We color-code every property:

• GREEN — Underpriced. The seller left money on the table. The buyer got a deal.
• YELLOW — Fair value. Both sides can sleep at night.
• RED — Overpriced. Someone paid too much. Period.
• GREY — Insufficient data. We don't guess.

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The Numbers Don't Lie. People Do.

Right now, we're actively tracking 38,967 property valuations across 15 states and DC, fed by 1.67 million distress signals from 33 independent data sources. This isn't a weekend hobby. This is an intelligence operation.

Here's what we found in just the last seven days:

671

Properties Overpriced

RED — in 7 days

$942M

Collectively Overpaid

One week of data

That's not a typo. Nearly a billion dollars in unnecessary cost — in seven days — just in the properties we've valued so far. Imagine what a full year looks like.

That's one week. One. The machine never stops collecting.

Wall of Shame

Location	Paid	Actually Worth	Overpaid By
XXXXXX, NH	$1,675,000	$1,266,783	32.2%
XXXXXX, CT	$1,860,000	$1,387,638	34.0%
XXXXXX, CT	$1,750,000	$1,219,529	43.5%
XXXXXX, CT	$1,650,000	$1,120,786	47.2%
XXXXXX, WV	$27,200,000	$18,732,363	45.2%

That NH property? Lakefront New Hampshire. Beautiful area. Terrible deal. Someone paid $408,000 more than they should have because nobody in the room had independent valuation data.

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This Isn't Just New Hampshire

We started in the Lakes Region. Now we're everywhere that matters.

PennsylvaniaConnecticutNew YorkMarylandVirginiaNorth CarolinaArizonaWest VirginiaWashington, DCVermontColoradoMaineMassachusettsNew Hampshire

You think Manhattan commercial real estate is priced rationally? We found a "luxury hotel" property in  valued at $111 million that traded at $260 million. That's a 134% premium. Somebody's CFO should be asking questions (OR FIRED!).

This is what happens when buyers rely on the same people selling the deal to also validate the deal.
It's the fox guarding the henhouse, and the fox is wearing a blazer.

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How We're Different

Traditional real estate runs on three things: gut instinct, motivated reasoning, and information asymmetry. The agent knows more than you. The seller knows more than you. The lender just wants to close.

We flip that model. Our system:

• Runs 24/7. Automated collectors pull data from public records, MLS feeds, municipal assessments, and federal registries while you sleep.
• Uses four independent valuation methods — not one, and not the Zestimate. All four must converge before we call a property fairly priced.
• Covers 158 million+ U.S. properties. That's 99% of the U.S. population's real estate footprint.
• Flags overpriced deals in real time. Before you wire the money. Before the ink dries.
• Has no commission bias. We don't get paid more when you pay more. Novel concept in this industry.

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The Intelligence Advantage

Here's what the billion-dollar Wall Street firms already know: real estate is an information game. The party with the best data wins. Blackstone doesn't buy a strip mall because the listing agent said it's a "great opportunity." They run the numbers. Multiple numbers. From multiple sources.

You deserve the same advantage.

We call it REFAX — Real Estate Financial Analysis, Cross-Referenced. Every property gets a color. Every color is backed by math. Every decision you make is informed by data, not by someone who gets 3% of whatever you pay.

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What This Means for You

If you're buying: You should know the real value before you bid. Not the listing price. Not the "estimated market value" your agent pulled from a single source. The actual, multi-method, cross-referenced value.

If you're selling: You should know exactly where your property sits. GREEN means you're priced to sell fast. RED means your agent priced it to maximize their commission, not your outcome. YELLOW means you're in the zone.

If you're investing: You should be looking at our GREEN list. Properties where the math says there's value the market hasn't priced in yet. That's not speculation — that's arbitrage.

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We're Not Done

Residential. Commercial. Land. We value all of it. And we're moving quickly into business brokering and M&A — because the same information asymmetry that lets someone overpay for a lakehouse also lets someone overpay for a company.

38,967 valuations is the starting point. We're expanding coverage weekly. More states. More property types. More asset classes. The goal is simple: make information asymmetry a thing of the past.

The industry won't like it. They never do when someone turns the lights on.

But here's the thing — we're not asking permission.

Jeff Stutzman is the founder of Monadnock Cyber Intelligence and Monadnock Cyber (NH). He spent 35+ years in intelligence and cybersecurity before deciding the real estate industry needed the same treatment. He was right.

Have a property you want valued? Think you overpaid? Contact us — we'll tell you the truth, even if your agent won't, even if you don't like it.

Monadnock Cyber | New Hampshire

Intelligence-Driven Real Estate